Inside the NHL
With the Kraken’s season opener five weeks away, we’re seeing early indicators of where experts feel their campaign might go.
No, not the usual stuff from media pundits or fans. More like the professional sports gambling bookmakers who move huge sums of money and must come up with realistic team point-total projections to set betting lines.
They do this by employing statistical analysts and others with detailed knowledge of teams and personnel. Now, I’m not telling anyone to run out and place bets on the Kraken, nor am I passing moral judgment on sports gambling — legally launched a year ago in Washington state tribal casinos — one way or another. I’m merely looking at what some recently published “over-under” lines on projected team point totals might tell us about how experts hired by gambling entities view the Kraken.
Updated totals from DraftKings have the Kraken at an over-under of 81½ points. This doesn’t mean DraftKings feels the Kraken will hit that total — and we all know teams can’t accumulate half-points.
What it suggests is the company feels the listed total is what would generate the most gambling action either above that amount or below it. In other words, an equal number of bettors would pick the Kraken to finish with 82 points and higher or 81 points and lower.
So although no exact point total is being predicted, the amount posted does logically tell us the Kraken could realistically be expected to fall somewhere around the low-80s. And that should be enough to keep them in the playoff discussion through much of March for a season ending April 13.
When we look at over-under projections for other NHL squads, the Kraken’s predicted amount would place them sixth in their eight-team Pacific Division — ahead of Anaheim and San Jose — and 12th in the Western Conference. The top three teams in each division qualify for postseason play, and an additional two wild-card teams are added from the next-best conference squads.
DraftKings has the Edmonton Oilers, Calgary Flames and Vegas Golden Knights as the top three Pacific teams, with over-under lines of 103½, 102½ and 97½ points. The top three Central Division teams are the Colorado Avalanche, Minnesota Wild and Nashville Predators, at 111½, 101½ and 96½ points, then the two highest conference wild-card contenders after that are the Los Angeles Kings and St. Louis Blues at 96½ and 95½, respectively.
So the Kraken have serious work ahead to make the playoffs if they appear headed for a low-80s point total and need mid-90s for even a wild-card spot. But considering they managed only 60 points last season and were effectively done by December, things already seem more compelling.
Clearly, the additions of wingers Oliver Bjorkstrand and Andre Burakovsky and expected full-time ascension of center prospect Matty Beniers and possibly Shane Wright have buoyed the optimism of gambling entities. But question marks linger in goal, with Chris Driedger’s injury leaving Philipp Grubauer to shoulder the overwhelming amount of work behind a defensive corps that upgraded with Justin Schultz but wasn’t quite elite to begin with.
So you can see where optimism still leans more toward the cautious side with this team when it comes to betting lines. After all, it was just a year ago that Las Vegas oddsmakers had the Kraken at an over-under of 90½ points and right on the playoff edge.
Perhaps analysts all just got it totally wrong. Or maybe projections were hampered by COVID-19, injuries and limited expansion team-building opportunities. Regardless, it amounted to one huge Kraken miss on the betting front.
If we look at current offshore betting lines, the folks at SportsBetting.ag revealed their over-under point totals last week with a chart of last season’s projections and how they fared.
The company has the Kraken at an over-under of 83½ points, which is slightly better than the DraftKings line. But in context with the rest of the division and conference, the Kraken remain sixth and 12th in both.
Still, remember, these over-under estimates are only projected ranges to encourage betting. Upsets happen, and teams can get hot at the right time. The median NHL team wound up surpassing its SportsBetting.ag projected total by 4½ points last season.
Calgary opened at a playoff bubble over/under of 90½ points and finished the Pacific Division champion at 111.
But tables also turned the opposite way.
The Kraken projected for an over-under of 92½ points on SportsBetting.ag, only to finish 32½ points below that line.
Only the Montreal Canadiens and Philadelphia Flyers did worse, underperforming their lines by 34½ and 33½ points, respectively. The New Jersey Devils were next after the Kraken at 27½ points below their line.
The perceived underperformance had consequences in Montreal and Philadelphia, where the Canadiens fired coach Dominique Ducharme in February. The Flyers jettisoned coach Alain Vigneault in December and interim coach Mike Yeo at season’s end. Devils coach Lindy Ruff is also now widely viewed as the NHL’s leading “hot seat” candidate to be fired first if that team struggles.
We’ll see what is in store for the Kraken, but you’d have to think there’s pressure on coach Dave Hakstol to get off to a much stronger start.
Anyhow, an 83-point pace would have the Kraken at 69 points by mid-March with a projected mid-90s wild-card finisher being at roughly 78 points by then. That’s still a single-digit points deficit for the Kraken with four weeks to go.
They’re at least still in the playoff conversation, unlike, say, the Chicago Blackhawks and Arizona Coyotes opening at 67 1/2. Nobody expects them to do anything this season.
For a hopeful comparison, Los Angeles opened at a Kraken-like line of 85½ points on SportsBetting.ag last season, only to finish at 99 and in the playoffs. The Kings enjoyed a strong second half and won six of their final eight games.
It should be noted the Kraken play lowly Arizona three times their final seven games and Chicago in another. Hey, anyone can dream.
But at the very least, oddsmakers seem to feel the Kraken should keep their games meaningful until the early chirps of spring. And as an expiration date, that beats the early flurries of Christmas every time.