HOUSTON — The most feared slugger in baseball today?
Houston’s Yordan Alvarez might be at the top of that list. He’s right up there, anyway, with the Yankees’ Aaron Judge and the Angels’ Mike Trout.
The Mariners know Trout all too well, of course, and they’ve tried many pitching strategies over the past decade to get him out. Usually the best strategy to throw to Trout is not to throw to Trout. Be careful with him. Dare someone else to beat you. It’s not a novel strategy, but it might be the best one the Mariners have.
ALDS Game 1
Astros 8, Mariners 7
Alvarez ought to get the Trout treatment too, after the damage he did to Mariners pitchers in Game 1 of the American League Division Series at Minute Maid Park.
“It’s funny you would put those two in the same bucket,” Mariners manager Scott Servais said Wednesday. “Because I do.”
Alvarez, at just 25, has already played in 35 playoff games, including two World Series. He was the MVP of the AL Championship Series last year when he hit .522 with a 1.408 OPS against Boston.
He got off to a roaring start against the Mariners on Wednesday, going 3 for 5 with two doubles and the walkoff home run off Robbie Ray with two outs in the ninth inning, giving the Astros an 8-7 victory and throwing a serious wrench in the Mariners’ pitching plans.
Servais’ decision to use Ray in that situation has been roundly (and rightly) criticized.
The Mariners, by pushing Ray to the bullpen, made it clear they aren’t comfortable with him starting a game in this series. And that’s the right decision. In his three starts against them this season, the Astros lit up Ray for 14 runs across 10 2/3 innings (10.97 ERA) with six homers and a 1.374 OPS allowed.
It defies logic, though, to come to the conclusion that he is not suited to pitch in the first inning but he is somehow the best option with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning of the franchise’s the most important game in two decades.
Before the start of the ALDS, as they do before every series, Servais and his coaching staff met with team executives, scouts and analysts to pore over the data. They tried to figure out who matches up best against opponents’ hitters and such.
If the Mariners’ math continues to tell them that Ray is the right formula, well, they need a new calculator. Better yet, they might consider switching majors altogether and check out the English Lit department.
How will the Mariners pitch to Alvarez now?
They shouldn’t, if they can help it.
Before Game 2 on Thursday, Servais should duct tape both thumbs to his palms and practice holding up four fingers. Intentionally walk Alvarez every time if that’s what it takes.
He has earned the full Trout treatment. Servais acknowledged as much Wednesday. But walking Alvarez in the ninth, with runners on first and second and Alex Bregman standing on deck, was a nonstarter for him in Game 1.
“Are you going to walk him to put the tying run on second base?” Servais asked. “You don’t do that in baseball. You don’t. People that have been in the game as long as I have understand, like, this is not what you do.”
Servais can’t actually pitch around Alvarez every time, but you can count on him continuing to lean on the relievers that got the Mariners here. That largely has been Andres Munoz and Paul Sewald in the high-leverage situations, and that won’t change.
It’s fair to wonder how Munoz will respond after his first bad outing in the postseason in Game 1. It’s also fair to wonder if he’s run out of gas at the end of his first full season in the majors.
Munoz, still just 23, was as close to invincible as it gets in the second half of the season — he was maybe the best reliever in baseball and hadn’t allowed a home run since June 10. But Bregman turned on a 93-mph slider and hit it 403 feet out of the park in the eighth inning Tuesday.
The Mariners aren’t going to win this series without Munoz at the top of his game. He’s that good, and he means that much to them. We will see a Munoz-Alvarez matchup again, and perhaps as early as Game 2.
Here’s how Alvarez has fared against the Seattle’s top relievers:
- Paul Sewald: 1 for 7, 3 K’s
- Andres Munoz: 2 for 3, 2B, K
- Erik Swanson: 1 for 2, 2B, BB
- Diego Castillo: 0 for 1
- Matt Brash: 0 for 1
The Mariners absolutely need Sewald. He’s their most experienced closer and still their best option late in the game after they’ve exhausted Munoz. Perhaps, if put in a similar situation again, Servais ought to stick with Sewald in the ninth inning to face Alvarez. Does he have a better option?
Swanson has fallen out of favor after a rough September (7.04 ERA), but Brash, a rookie, has the stuff to get the job done, and Castillo has the experience.
The bullpen is one of the biggest reasons the Mariners have gotten this far in the postseason. Servais and the Mariners’ decision-makers need to trust the established relievers when it matters — what other choice do they have, really? — but they also need to be smarter about how and when they pitch to one of the game’s greatest sluggers.
They simply can’t let Alvarez beat them again.