Washington (5-2, 2-2 Pac-12) at California (3-3, 1-2 Pac-12)
7:30 p.m. Saturday, Berkeley, Calif.
TV: ESPN Radio: 93.3-FM KJR
Latest line: Huskies by 7.5
UW key players
QB Michael Penix Jr.: 67.4% completions, 2,560 pass yards, 20 pass TD, 4 INT, 2 rush TD
WR Rome Odunze: 44 catches, 693 receiving yards, 15.8 yards per reception, 6 TD
Edge Jeremiah Martin: 26 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, 5 sacks, 1 forced fumble
S Asa Turner: 16 tackles, 2 INT
Cal key players
QB Jack Plummer: 61.2% completions, 1,509 pass yards, 9 pass TD, 3 INT, 1 rush TD
RB Jaydn Ott: 580 rush yards, 6.5 yards per carry, 5 rush TD, 117 receiving yards, 2 receiving TD
LB Jackson Sirmon: 52 tackles, 4 TFL, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT
S Daniel Scott: 32 tackles, 2 INT, 1 pass breakup, 1 TFL
Four-quarter fight
UW has outscored opponents 71-31 in the second quarter in four home games this season. The Huskies have been outscored 38-13 in the second quarter of its two road defeats. And really, for whatever reason, those momentary lapses have separated the Huskies from an undefeated 7-0 record. Kalen DeBoer’s team has been utterly dominant in the opening quarter, outscoring opponents 72-26 (while logging touchdowns on all seven of its opening drives). UW has also made the most of halftime adjustments, holding an 82-47 advantage in the third quarter as well. But that effort and execution must be maintained for four quarters to secure a road win. (And if you were wondering, the Bears have outscored opponents 47-34 in the second quarter through six games this fall.)
Turnover troubles
It’s pretty simple, really. UW has forced seven turnovers (five interceptions and two fumbles) in its five wins, while surrendering a single interception and fumble of its own. But the Huskies have forced just one turnover (an interception) in their two losses, while also coughing up three picks. To put it plainly, UW quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and Co. should be too much for a Cal secondary ranking sixth in the Pac-12 in opponent pass efficiency rating (129.06), seventh in opponent completion percentage (63.6%) and 11th in pass defense (258.7 yards allowed per game). But an ill-timed turnover or two could turn the tide. Cal, after all, ranks second in the Pac-12 in turnover margin (1.33) — having snared eight interceptions and four fumbles in just six games. If the Huskies hold on to the football, they’ll win. But that’s not as easy as it sounds.
Pummeling Plummer
The Huskies are undoubtedly happy to be rid of Jayden de Laura, who threw for 400 yards and four touchdowns last weekend while eluding multiple sacks. Fortunately for UW, Cal quarterback Jack Plummer has no such escapability. The 6-foot-5, 215-pounder has already been sacked 18 times, ranking 11th in the Pac-12. He has also made precious few mistakes, surrendering just three interceptions. Washington’s defensive weakness is obviously its secondary, which has been shredded for 956 yards and nine touchdowns (with one interception) in its last three games. And while Dominique Hampton and Mishael Powell could conceivably return Saturday, the secondary will continue to be a target. For UW, the best way to negate that weakness is to pressure Plummer early and often, as it did against Stanford’s Tanner McKee. UW doesn’t need eight sacks, but four or five would be fine.
Vorel’s prediction
Cal has lost two straight, including an overtime defeat to previously winless Colorado. The Golden Bears don’t possess the prolific passing game that Arizona’s de Laura presented last weekend. Still, UW needs to prove it can win on the road. That will require Penix to have yet another productive day, while avoiding snowballing mistakes. It will require UW’s defense to pressure Plummer and keep Cal’s running game — including freshman Jaydn Ott — under relative wraps. It will require the Huskies avoiding another disastrous second quarter. But all things considered, UW is the more talented, explosive team. The Huskies will pick up their first road win and achieve bowl eligibility before heading into a desperately needed bye week.
Final score: Huskies 38, Bears 27