A game with the Denver Broncos marked the high point of the Russell Wilson-Seahawks relationship, that glorious February 2014 night in New Jersey, where Seattle recorded its lone Super Bowl victory.
Eight-plus years later it’s another Seahawks-Broncos game that marks the official parting of the ways between the sides, Wilson now with Denver and on the opposing sideline for Seattle’s regular-season opener.
But if that’s the dominant storyline, it’s far from the only thing that will decide Monday night’s game at Lumen Field.
Here are our weekly keys to the game, and prediction.
Matchup to watch
Denver QB Russell Wilson vs. Seattle’s secondary
The Seahawks have sure things at safety in Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams, and preseason standout Josh Jones when the team goes with a three-safety look it may use a lot, But the starting cornerbacks are more in question — it could be veteran Sidney Jones IV on the left side and rookie Tariq Woolen on the right. Jones didn’t play in the preseason due to a concussion, and Woolen was one of the team’s best players. But the regular season is different, especially going up against a QB such as Wilson and potentially explosive receivers Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. Wilson will also try to find slot receiver K.J. Hamler against Justin Coleman or, if/when he plays, rookie Coby Bryant. “I feel good with whoever we have out there,” Hurtt said this week. “We are going to be confident in them.”
Player to watch
Seahawks QB Geno Smith
As the preseason progressed, the question increasingly arose among national NFL observers — the Seahawks are really going with Geno Smith? Yes, for now they are, and much of Seattle’s hopes that this is a retooling season and not a rebuilding one rests on him being able to play the way coach Pete Carroll wants — limiting turnovers, taking what the defense gives him and converting big plays when they are there. But limiting turnovers may be Points A, B and C — the main reason he won the job, and the main way to keep it. What Seattle also needs Smith to do is avoid the killer sack — he was sacked four times on 12 possessions in the preseason after having a sack percentage of 12 last year that would have led the NFL with enough attempts.
Coaching decision to watch
Pressuring Russell Wilson
Hurtt has frequently mentioned his desire for the defense to be more aggressive this season and specifically getting Adams more involved in pass-rush opportunities. This will be our first chance to see what that looks like in action — and one question worth wondering is if the Seahawks could use Adams as a de facto spy on Wilson and sending him to chase after Wilson regularly. That’d be fun to watch.
The X-factor
Revenge
Who wants to win this more? Carroll, to show — at least for a night — that he can succeed in the post-Wilson era and that the team made the right call in trading him? Wilson, to show one last time what the team will miss with him gone? The game, of course, will be decided by far more than the emotions of those two — and ultimately that may not matter much. But expect the TV cameras to zero in on both at every turn, letting their faces tell the tale at the end.
Player who could surprise
Seahawks running back DeeJay Dallas
With rookie running back Ken Walker III doubtful to play — as this is written, anyway — the Seahawks will have Dallas and Travis Homer as the two running backs working behind Rashaad Penny. Dallas, entering his third year, tied for the NFL lead in the preseason in rushing with 163 yards, averaging 5.8 per carry, and figures to get the early-down work if/when Penny gets a series or two off.
Key stat
Red-zone production
The Seahawks couldn’t blame their red-zone offense or defense for their 7-10 record last year. Seattle ranked third in the NFL in red-zone offense, scoring touchdowns on 31 of 48 possessions inside the 20-yard line (64.6%) and fourth in red-zone defense, allowing touchdowns on just 31 of 61 opponent possessions inside the 20, 50.8%. But most of the offensive red-zone success obviously came with Wilson. And some of the red-zone defensive success could be attributed to a relatively unaggressive scheme designed not to allow big plays (as well as being good against the run). Without Wilson, Seattle’s margin for error seems slimmer than ever, so capitalizing on any drive inside the 20 — and making stops on the other end — feels more important than ever.
Prediction
Seahawks 20, Broncos 17
It’s easy to forget that Carroll seemed to have a knack for getting the Seahawks to rise to the occasion in the two years before he had Wilson to rely on, such as the famous Beast Quake playoff win over the Saints, or the victory over a 12-win Baltimore team in 2011. So with Wilson back in the building — even if on the other side — maybe Carroll can help the Seahawks pull off some upset magic one more time.