In the early days of the Seahawks there was no more dastardly opponent than the Chargers. While they pulled off some memorable upsets of the Raiders and Broncos in the ‘70s and beat the Chiefs the first three times they played them, the Seahawks had lots of trouble with the Chargers, losing the first eight times.
Players of that era still lament that just one win against the Chargers in the 1978-79 seasons might have meant a playoff berth.
That changed through the years, and now the Seahawks have their best record against the Chargers of any of their old AFC West foes — 26-25.
But they’ve beaten them just twice since realignment and the move to the NFC West in 2002, going 2-3.
They will try to change that Sunday at SoFi Stadium.
Here are our weekly keys to the game and prediction.
Matchup to watch
Chargers’ edge rusher Khalil Mack vs. Seahawks tackles Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas
The Seahawks gave up a season-high five sacks in Sunday’s 19-9 win over Arizona and now face Mack, who is tied for the NFL lead with six sacks. The Chargers try to vary where Mack lines up, but he’ll often be over a tackle, which means another tough matchup for rookies Cross and Lucas. Lucas gave up one sack last week according to Pro Football Focus (two were assigned to guard Damien Lewis and two others to coverage). While it will take a village to keep Mack in check, the Seahawks will need good games out of the two rookies.
Player to watch
WR DK Metcalf
With Tyler Lockett dealing with a sore hamstring, the Seahawks might need to rely on Metcalf even more. They certainly need Metcalf to do more than last week, when thanks in part to Arizona defending him with a lot of bracket coverage he was held to season lows in receptions (two) and yards (34). And Metcalf could have a favorable matchup any time he goes against cornerback J.C. Jackson. The Chargers signed Jackson to a five-year, $82.5 million contract in March after four good seasons in New England that included being named as a second team All-Pro. He has struggled with the Chargers, allowing three touchdowns in four games, including on Monday against Denver and Russell Wilson, after which he was benched, playing just 26 snaps. Jackson is expected back in the starting lineup Sunday. Expect the Seahawks to try to test him early.
Coaching decision to watch
How much dime defense will the Seahawks play?
When the Seahawks turned in their best defensive performance of the year against Arizona it coincided with them playing their most dime defense of the year — meaning, three safeties and three cornerbacks. They had three safeties on the field for 23 of 71 snaps — with Josh Jones entering as the third safety alongside Quandre Diggs and Ryan Neal — which resulted in inside linebacker Cody Barton playing a season-low 28 snaps. Defensive coordinator Clint Hurtt insisted this week the move was not so much in reaction to the defensive struggles of the previous few weeks but something they wanted to use more regardless, especially in third-down and two-minute situations. “It had nothing to do with Cody,’’ Hurtt said. Still, it will be interesting to see how the playtime percentages work out this week.
The X-factor
Geno Smith’s running
Who would ever have thought the Seahawks would have no drop-off in what they’d get in terms of rushing from their QB spot after trading Russell Wilson, and potentially an increase? Through six games, Smith has an edge on Wilson in the rushing category — Smith has 125 yards rushing on 26 carries and Wilson 96 on 21. Smith’s rushes have also been well-timed. He has picked up seven first downs on 19 runs on second or third downs, with 97 yards on those attempts. Most of his running damage has come out of shotgun — 124 yards on 14 attempts, according to Pro Football Reference. And Smith’s rushing has been critical to winning. According to PFR he has 111 yards on 19 attempts in Seattle’s three victories, just 14 yards on seven attempts in the three losses. A trend to watch again Sunday.
Player who could surprise
Cornerback Sidney Jones IV
Jones, a former UW standout, entered training camp as the presumptive starter at left cornerback. But a concussion early in camp limited his time through the preseason and he lost the job to Michael Jackson. Now healthy, Jones has played in a reserve role in two of the past three games, including 11 snaps against Arizona rotating in with Jackson. That rotation could continue this week especially with Artie Burns again ailing with a groin injury. Interestingly, ESPN reported this week the Seahawks are willing to listen to trade offers for Jones. Might that make them even more apt to want to give Jones a few snaps to try to show other teams what he can do?
Key stat
Third-down/red-zone percentages
After a blistering start to the season on third down — 26 of 47 in the first four games — the Seahawks are 5 of 23 the past two weeks, including 4 of 14 against Arizona. That’s also had the effect of Seattle scoring a touchdown on just one of six drives inside the 20 the last two weeks after going 5 of 12 to start the season, forced instead to settle for five field goals the past two games. It didn’t ultimately hurt the Seahawks against Arizona, but it will if it continues.
Prediction
Chargers 28, Seahawks 24
L.A. is coming off a short week, and figures to be short-handed with leading receiver Keenan Allen possibly missing a sixth straight game. The Seahawks are coming off their best defensive performance, and most-well rounded game of the season. But the Chargers still have plenty of weapons and this feels like a tough task for the Seahawks. If they pass this test a lot of doubters will be swayed.