No. 20 Texas (8-4) at No. 12 Washington (10-2)
6 p.m. Thursday, San Antonio
TV: ESPN Radio: SportsRadio 93.3-FM KJR
Latest line: Longhorns by 3.5
UW key players
QB Michael Penix Jr.: 4,354 passing yards, 66% completions, 29 pass TD, 4 rush TD, 7 INT
WR Rome Odunze: 70 catches, 1,088 receiving yards, 15.5 yards per reception, 8 TD
Edge Bralen Trice: 33 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, 8 sacks
S Alex Cook: 77 tackles, 3.5 TFL
UT key players
QB Quinn Ewers: 1,808 passing yards, 56.7% completions, 14 pass TD, 6 INT, 1 rush TD
WR Xavier Worthy: 53 catches, 676 receiving yards, 12.75 yards per reception, 9 TD
LB Jaylan Ford: 109 tackles, 10 TFL, 4 INT, 3 forced fumbles, 2 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries, 2 pass breakups
DB Jahdae Barron: 71 tackles, 11.5 TFL, 3 PBU, 2 INT, 1 sack, 1 fumble recovery
Protecting Penix
UW has nearly perfectly protected redshirt junior quarterback Michael Penix Jr., ranking second in the country with just seven sacks surrendered in 12 games this fall. That has allowed the Indiana transfer to become a deadly distributor — spreading targets to Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan, Ja’Lynn Polk, Giles Jackson, Taj Davis, Devin Culp, Jack Westover and more. It’s also a reason why Washington leads the nation in third down conversions (57.06%) and has the most completions of 10-plus yards (182) of any team, by far. Texas, on the other hand, ranks second in the Big 12 in both sacks (2.25) and tackles for loss per game (7.25). Can the Longhorns make Penix uncomfortable, something UW’s Pac-12 opponents repeatedly failed to do? If they don’t, they’re in for a long night in the Alamo Dome.
Stuffing the run
It’s true: Texas is without its top two running backs, draft-bound bruisers Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson. But don’t assume the Longhorns’ running attack will wilt without its star attractions. Redshirt freshman Jonathon Brooks and Alabama transfer Keilan Robinson are plenty capable, and this is still a Texas offense that has averaged 317.5 rushing yards with six yards per carry and 11 rushing scores in its last two games. On the other hand, UW’s defense struggled against the Pac-12’s premier rushing attacks — surrendering 313 rushing yards and 6.1 yards per carry against Oregon, 175 yards and 4.4 yards per carry against Oregon State and 184 yards and 4.7 yards per rush against UCLA. “You get to a point where you’re at game 10, 11, 12, 13 on the season, and I don’t think you’re just going to magically change who you are,” UW co-defensive coordinator Chuck Morrell said of Texas’ running game. “I think our plan is pretty straightforward. We’ve got to be able to do a great job in the box and stop the run and force them into the drop-back game.”
Motivation matters
Here’s a thing some folks don’t like to acknowledge about bowl games outside of the New Year’s Six: the team that really wants to win … usually wins. And not all teams are equally invested. Besides the aforementioned Robinson and Johnson, standout Texas linebacker DeMarvion Overshown also opted out of the Alamo Bowl. So … do the Longhorns want to be there? We’ll find out on Thursday night. It helps, of course, that Texas will essentially host a home game 80 miles southwest of Austin. But the Huskies — many of whom believe they should have played in the Pac-12 championship game — are not lacking motivation. Kalen DeBoer’s team hasn’t had a single noteworthy player opt out, and standout quarterback Michael Penix Jr., wide receiver Jalen McMillan, edges Bralen Trice and Zion Tupuola-Fetui, defensive tackle Tuli Letuligasenoa and left tackle Troy Fautanu have all announced they’re returning in 2023. Washington believes it can do something special in 2023 … but why wait?
Vorel’s prediction
By now, you know the formula. Washington will score a lot of points. It will surrender a lot of points. The Alamo Bowl will come down to a couple plays on both sides of the ball. And, as has been the case so often this fall, Michael Penix Jr. will excel in the most important moments. UW’s redshirt junior quarterback said Tuesday that “I had no doubt in my mind (when I arrived in Seattle) that we were going to have the season that we had, just especially with those guys up front blocking for me and the playmakers that we have on the outside. They give me a lot of time to get the ball out, and with those guys on the outside making plays, special things are always going to happen.” More special things will happen for the Huskies in San Antonio. And while Texas’ running game will get going, Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers will fail to connect on the long ball … and Penix and Co. will make those mistakes matter. Washington will cap a magical season (and maintain its momentum) with an 11th win.
Final score: Huskies 37, Longhorns 34