The new-look MLB playoffs are here.
Gone is the old single-game wild-card round between the 4-seed and 5-seed. Instead, this year, for the first time, MLB features four three-game wild-card series after expanding each playoff field to six teams and three wild cards. The top two seeds in each league receive a bye to the ALDS and NLDS, respectively.
This year’s field features the reigning champion Braves, the regular heavyweights, both New York squads, six teams from the East divisions and the Mariners for the first time since 2001, ending the longest drought in North American sports.
Here are the odds for the remaining 12 teams pursuing the World Series.
2022 World Series Odds
Los Angeles Dodgers +275
Houston Astros +350
New York Yankees +500
Atlanta Braves +500
New York Mets +850
Toronto Blue Jays +1300
St. Louis Cardinals +1400
Tampa Bay Rays +1700
Cleveland Guardians +2500
Seattle Mariners +2500
San Diego Padres +2500
Philadelphia Phillies +2500
The Dodgers, who finished with an MLB-best 111 wins, are the favorites to win a second World Series in three years. The Astros, the AL’s top seed and last year’s runner-up have the best odds among American League odds.
What’s noticeable among these odds is the teams with byes—Dodgers, Astros, Yankees and Braves—have the four best odds. This is to be expected since the new format, in theory, should give these teams a bigger advantage than the previous setup since the wild-card teams have to use at least two starting pitchers.
The best odds among the wild-card teams belong to the Mets at +850. The Mets’ odds dipped a noticeable amount after they squandered the division lead to the Braves and, instead, now have to get through the Juan Soto-led Padres.
Four teams have the worst odds at +2500, including the AL central champion Guardians, who will face the Rays in the wild-card round. The other three are the 5-seeds in the Mariners and Padres and the NL’s 6-seed in the Phillies.
The main takeaway from these odds is that the top seeds are sizable favorites, followed by the 2-seeds, and then the Mets are in their own tier. That’s followed by the Blue Jays, Rays and Cardinals, and then the final four teams at +2500.
Let’s now check out the AL pennant odds.
AL Pennant Odds
Houston Astros +150
New York Yankees +200
Toronto Blue Jays +600
Cleveland Guardians +1000
Tampa Bay Rays +1100
Seattle Mariners +1200
The Astros lead the Yankees by a slight margin in these odds, but the most interesting nugget is that the Guardians have better odds than the Rays. The Rays, as we just noted, have significantly better odds to win the World Series.
The Rays-Guardians winner will meet the Yankees in the ALDS, while the Astros will clash against the Blue Jays-Mariners winner.
NL Pennant Odds
Los Angeles Dodgers +130
Atlanta Braves +210
New York Mets +500
St. Louis Cardinals +750
Philadelphia Phillies +1100
San Diego Padres +1100
The Dodgers are a large favorite entering the postseason despite the Braves winning 101 games and beating them in last year’s NCLCS.
The Braves’ +210 odds compared to the Mets’ +500 odds showcase just how important that bye is when projecting teams’ ability to make a run.
These odds indicate that the Mets will beat the Padres in the wild-card round, and the Cardinals will defeat the Phillies, setting up intriguing NLDS clashes between the Dodgers and Mets and Cardinals and Braves.