Chris Petersen used to say, “Stats are for losers.”
And yet, those same statistics help explain wins and losses alike.
After exiting a bye, Washington (6-2) — which achieved bowl eligibility with a 28-21 win at Cal on Oct. 22 — hosts Oregon State (6-2) in a pivotal Pac-12 match up inside Husky Stadium on Friday. But how have the Huskies so quickly crawled out of the Pac-12 cellar? And which areas may prevent Kalen DeBoer’s team from contending for a conference title immediately this fall?
Here are six statistics that tell the story of UW’s season so far.
379.3 passing yards per game — first nationally, first Pac-12
We’ll start with the obvious, a passing offense that’s almost impossibly improved. A year ago — with Jimmy Lake as head coach, John Donovan as offensive coordinator and Dylan Morris as the starting quarterback — UW led the Pac-12 in exactly one passing category: individual interceptions (Morris, 12).
The Huskies also ranked fifth in the Pac-12 in passing yards per game (225), ninth in touchdown passes (15), 10th in yards per pass attempt (6.6), 10th in pass efficiency rating (119.14), 11th in total interceptions (16) and 11th in completion percentage (59.4%).
Less than a calendar year later, DeBoer, offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb and Indiana transfer quarterback Michael Penix Jr. have swiftly and comprehensively reversed those results. Through eight games (and nine weeks), Washington ranks first in the Pac-12 (and the nation) in passing yards per game, 12th nationally in touchdown passes (22), 17th in yards per pass attempt (8.6) 18th in pass efficiency rating (158.09).
Typically, when you trade conference for national statistics, things have either gotten a whole lot better or a whole lot worse.
125 completions of 10 yards or more — first nationally, first Pac-12
While UW certainly touts a prolific passing offense, it may not be as explosive as some assume. The Huskies’ 15 completions of 30 yards or more ranks 23rd in the nation and tied for second in the Pac-12. (Their 18 total plays of 30 yards or more is just 46th nationally, reflective of an inconsistent ground game.)
But UW’s greater strength lies in Penix and Co.’s consistent, methodical ability to move the ball. The Huskies’ 27.9 first downs per game rank second in the Pac-12 (behind Oregon) and third in the nation, and their 125 completions of 10 yards or more are the most of any FBS program.
Penix and Grubb certainly deserve credit, but don’t forget UW’s formidable wide receiver corps — led by Rome Odunze (50 catches, 756 receiving yards, 15.1 yards per reception, 6 TD), Jalen McMillan (45, 611, 13.6, 6) and Ja’Lynn Polk (21, 394, 18.8, 4).
It was recently suggested to Oregon State coach Jonathan Smith that UW’s offense amounts to “Fresno State North.”
“Yeah, but with better receivers,” Smith told The Oregonian.
Which makes it all the more remarkable that an essentially identical wide receiver corps and offensive line struggled mightily a season ago.
68.18% red zone touchdown percentage — 41st nationally, sixth Pac-12
It’s not that the Huskies have struggled mightily in the red zone, but their relative inefficiency can be tied to two factors: fourth down flops and short yardage failures. UW ranks eighth in the Pac-12 in yards per carry (3.99) and last in rushes of 10-plus yards (30), and that inconsistency on the ground becomes more magnified in the red zone.
When asked last week where his offense must improve, first-year coordinator Ryan Grubb said “the obvious one would be being more consistent on short yardage. I think there’s games where we come out and execute the plan really well, and I thought we did that on Saturday (against Cal). And there’s games where that’s obviously been a problem for us.”
The same can be said on fourth down, where Washington went 1 for 7 (14.3%) in its last three games … after going 10 for 13 in its first five.
155.21 opponent pass efficiency rating — 119th nationally, 10th Pac-12
This is the most statistically undeniable way of communicating how bad UW’s pass defense has been.
Of course, we could also say that UW ranks eighth in the Pac-12 in opponent completion percentage (64.3%), eighth in interceptions (6), ninth in pass yards allowed per game (256.6), 11th in opponent yards per pass attempt (8.2) and dead last in pass touchdowns allowed (20). Or that, largely because of the struggling secondary, UW has surrendered 47.75% third down conversions — sitting 10th in the Pac-12 and 127th out of 131 teams in the nation.
Injuries to corners Mishael Powell, Jordan Perryman, Elijah Jackson and Julius Irvin, “husky” nickel Dominique Hampton and safeties Asa Turner and Vince Nunley obviously haven’t helped. But remember, too, that UW hasn’t faced a few premier Pac-12 quarterbacks in USC’s Caleb Williams, Utah’s Cam Rising, Oregon’s Bo Nix and WSU’s Cam Ward, either.
Powell, Perryman, Hampton and Turner are all back following the bye … so if the secondary still struggles, injuries won’t be a serviceable excuse.
3.27 opponent yards per carry — 19th nationally, first Pac-12
Is UW’s run defense improvement a convenient mirage? We’re about to find out.
A year after the Husky defense allowed 194 rushing yards per game (11th Pac-12) and 4.76 yards per carry (10th), those numbers have significantly improved — with Washington surrendering just 110.38 rush yards per game (second) and 3.27 yards per carry (first.)
But UW’s next two opponents, Oregon State and Oregon, will present a much more formidable test. The Beavers average 194.88 rush yards per game and 4.95 yards per carry … and true freshman Damien Martinez has amassed 389 rushing yards and three touchdowns in his last two games. Oregon, meanwhile, sits fourth in the nation in yards per carry (5.91) and ninth in rushing offense (235.75).
Despite bringing back familiar personnel, UW’s run defense is vastly improved — in part — because the Huskies have consistently devoted more bodies to the box. Their ability to hold up may ultimately decide UW’s next two games.
3.13 sacks per game — 13th nationally, second Pac-12
In UW’s six wins, the Huskies have compiled 24 sacks (four per game). Their two losses have yielded just one sack (0.5 per game). The Washington pass rush has been essential, at times, in nullifying an obviously overwhelmed and inexperienced secondary.
UW has also been able to corral the quarterback without blitzing — as edges Bralen Trice (6.5 sacks), Jeremiah Martin (6 sacks) and Zion Tupuola-Fetui (3.5 sacks) and defensive lineman Voi Tunuufi (4 sacks) have all contributed.
Going forward, the Huskies hope to stop the run on early downs and unleash their pass rushers on third and long.
“Sometimes you’ve got to pick your poison,” co-defensive coordinator Chuck Morrell said last week. “We’ve gotten some opportunities finally to get (the opponent) in third and long and all of a sudden you put the combination of Voi, ZTF (Tupuola-Fetui), Jeremiah (Martin) and Trice out there all at the same time. Good luck.
“You try to create as many one-on-one match ups for those guys (as possible). Voi has shown us that he can win 1-on-1s as well. So I think it presents opposing offensive lines some challenges when we put all four of those guys out there together.”