To find out where the rest of their season is headed, the Seattle Seahawks will first go to Kansas City.
What happens there figures to go a long way toward setting the direction for what is to follow.
Can the Seahawks pull off an upset that would turn their playoff odds from unlikely to likely, or at least avoid the blowout that the oddsmakers expect and take some momentum into the final two weeks?
Or will the Seahawks falter in the wake of losing four of their last five — three in a row at home — and playing without receiver Tyler Lockett and safety Ryan Neal, team leaders playing as well as they ever have in their careers and leaving huge voids going against a Chiefs team tied for the second-best record in the NFL?
“It’s really important for us to go out there and get a win,’’ Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith said. “It’s a crucial part of our season. We’ve got three games left to figure out what we are going to do here.’’
Not that anyone really expects a win.
The Seahawks are a 10-point underdog, which would tie for the biggest spread against the Seahawks in the last decade.
The Seahawks were 10-point underdogs for a game against the Rams in Los Angeles in 2018. If there’s a good omen, the Seahawks played competitively in that one, leading going into the fourth quarter before losing 36-31.
The last time the Seahawks were more than a 10-point underdog came in 2011 — the year before Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner arrived — when they were 11-point dogs at Dallas, a game the Cowboys won 23-13.
“This is a great one,’’ Carroll acknowledged when asked about the challenge of facing the Chiefs, who have been regarded as among the favorites to make it to the Super Bowl led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who may be the leader for the NFL MVP. “This is a freakin’ great one. This is arguably the best that the AFC has to offer. They will be playing for it to prove that.’’
Indeed, the Seahawks don’t figure to catch the Chiefs napping. For one, they are coming off an uneven performance last week at Houston, needing overtime to finally stave off the 1-12-1 Texans 30-24 due in part to losing two fumbles.
While Kansas City has already clinched the AFC West, it needs to keep winning to try to get the top seed in the AFC, tied for the moment with Buffalo.
The stakes may be even higher for the Seahawks.
Their playoff odds have gone from more than 80% when they were 6-3 to 30%, according to fivethirtyeght.com, after losing four of five to fall to 7-7 and to the eighth spot in the NFC playoff ladder.
An unexpected win against the Chiefs would lift those odds to 67%, according to fivethirtyeight, while a loss would drop them to 23%.
A loss coupled with a win by Detroit at Carolina would drop the Seahawks to ninth in the NFC playoff ladder behind the Lions and to just 17%.
The Seahawks are tied with Detroit at 7-7, but for the moment have the upper hand because they beat the Lions 48-45 in Detroit on Oct. 2, giving them the head-to-head tiebreaker.
“Who’s to say?’’ Carroll said, acknowledging the perception of being an underdog. “We are going to go out there and try to get the ballgame. It will teach us a lot. We will know a lot more about ourselves when we play this football game.”
As much as staying in the playoff hunt, what the Seahawks need to do is play well enough to feel good about themselves heading into the final two home games against the Jets on Jan. 1 and the Rams on either Jan. 7 or Jan. 8 to end what until the last few weeks had been a mostly feel-good season on a feel-good note.
When the year began, the playoffs seemed a remote possibility at best with the Seahawks appearing in a rebuilding mode following the trade of Wilson.
Instead, the otherworldly play of Smith coupled with the quick emergence of a promising rookie class had Seattle atop the NFC West at midseason.
Reality has hit with a resounding thud ever since the trip to Munich and a loss to Tampa Bay kick started the recent losing skid, one that has been marked by struggles running the ball and defending the run, and making just a few too many mistakes to pull out wins in the end.
Last Thursday’s 21-13 loss to the 49ers ended any hopes of winning the division and also perfectly encapsulated what has happened to the Seahawks since the 6-3 start as the 49ers capitalized on a turnover to get one easy TD, and took advantage of a simple breakdown in pass coverage to score another.
Take those two plays out, the Seahawks felt, and they could have won the game. But that showed just how thin the margin of error is, a margin that will be even slimmer going on the road against a team such as the Chiefs and without the likes of Lockett and Neal.
And Saturday brings the added complication of adverse weather, with a high temperature forecast of just 19 degrees, making this one of coldest games in Seahawks history.
“We have to play a great football game,’’ Carroll said this week. “That doesn’t mean we have to kill them; we have to do right throughout. So, that’s really what we are trying to do across the board — don’t give them this play and that play in a tight ballgame. It will make it harder to get the win.”
It already figures to be hard enough.