If the Pac-12 distributed a Coach of the Month award, Oregon’s Dana Altman would have a case full of trophies marked “February”.
A decade ago, his Ducks ripped through the month with eight wins in 10 games. The next year, they won nine of the final 10. Then 11 of their last 13. Then 10 of their final 13.
Oh, and don’t forget their finish two seasons ago, after so much COVID chaos, when the Ducks blasted through the stretch run with a 10-1 mark.
Invariably, the momentum carried into March as the Ducks routinely advanced to the Sweet 16 and beyond.
But those sizzling finishes have disappeared from the Eugene winters.
Oregon staggered through February last season, losing six of its final eight games, and ended up in the NIT.
This month has not been overly kind, either — and the Ducks are on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble as a result.
With three weeks remaining, Oregon is No. 50 in the NET rankings and would probably be left home if the 68-team field were selected today.
In un-Altman fashion, the Ducks (15-11/9-6) simply cannot sustain momentum
After a lopsided home loss to ASU, they appeared to regroup successfully, toppling Arizona and spanking Cal. Then they stumbled at unranked Stanford.
They recovered from that right cross in time to sweep the Mountain schools, then were beaten soundly at Arizona.
They rallied with a key win at ASU and handled USC, then were outclassed by UCLA.
Two wins, then a loss.
Two wins, then a loss.
Two wins, then a loss.
With five games left, the Ducks have zero premier opponents remaining on the schedule. They swing through Washington, visit Oregon State, then host the Bay Area schools.
That finish offers a chance to sustain momentum, but the results won’t materially upgrade their resume.
In that respect, February is effectively over for the Ducks. They must make their case for the NCAAs in March, at the Pac-12 tournament.
To the power ratings …
(NET rankings through Monday)
1. UCLA (21-4/12-2)
Last week: 1
Results: won at Oregon State 62-47 and Oregon 70-63
Next up: vs. Stanford (Thursday)
NET ranking: 5
Comment: The final three weeks will unfold in crescendo fashion with the Bay Area teams in town, followed by the tough Mountain road trip, then a visit from the Arizona schools, with the Wildcats in the finale.
2. Arizona (22-4/11-4)
Last week: 2
Results: won at Cal 85-62, lost at Stanford 88-79
Next up: vs. Utah (Thursday)
NET ranking: 11
Comment: Worth noting that the loss at Stanford looks much worse than it is with regard to the NET: Because of Stanford’s ranking (105), the result counts as a Quadrant II defeat.
3. Oregon (15-11/9-6)
Last week: 4
Results: beat USC 78-60, lost to UCLA 70-63
Next up: at Washington (Wednesday)
NET ranking: 50
Comment: More often than not, Oregon’s issues have come on the defensive side. Example: The Bruins shot over 50 percent from 3-point range on Saturday night.
4. USC (17-8/9-5)
Last week: 3
Results: lost at Oregon 78-60 and OSU 61-58
Next up: vs. Cal (Thursday)
NET ranking: 64
Comment: As if getting swept in Oregon wasn’t bad enough, USC’s premier non-conference conquest is unraveling: Auburn has lost five of its past six.
5. Utah (17-9/10-5)
Last week: 5
Result: beat Colorado 73-62
Next up: at Arizona (Thursday)
NET ranking: 52
Comment: The Utes have a single Quadrant I victory (over Arizona). That number needs to triple down the stretch, if not quadruple, in order to offset the 10 Quadrant IV wins.
6. Arizona State (18-8/9-6)
Last week: 6
Results: won at Stanford 69-65 and Cal 70-62 (OT)
Next up: vs. Colorado (Thursday)
NET ranking: 65
Comment: Not sure Desmond Cambridge would make the cut for a five-man all-conference team. But the Pac-12 picks 10 players for first-team honors, and he’s plenty worthy of that designation.
7. Washington State (11-15/6-9)
Last week: 8
Result: beat Washington 56-51
Next up: vs. Oregon State (Thursday)
NET ranking: 81
Comment: On the other hand, WSU forward Mouhamed Gueye would be a lock for any five-man all-conference team, along with UCLA’s Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Arizona’s Azuolas Tubelis.
8. Colorado (14-12/6-9)
Last week: 7
Result: lost at Utah 73-62
Next up: at Arizona State (Thursday)
NET ranking: 71
Comment: The Buffaloes have more Quad I wins than Utah (one) and the same number as USC (two), but their four Quad III losses are anchors in CU’s NET calculation.
9. Stanford (11-14/5-9)
Last week: 10
Results: lost to ASU 69-65, beat Arizona 88-79
Next up: at UCLA (Thursday)
NET ranking: 105
Comment: The Cardinal has now beaten three potential opponents in the Pac-12 quarterfinals: Utah, Oregon and Arizona.
10. Washington (13-13/5-10)
Last week: 9
Result: lost at WSU 56-51
Next up: vs. Oregon (Wednesday)
NET ranking: 124
Comment: With each passing week, the case for a coaching change gains steam. At this rate, his fate will be sealed before the conference tournament.
11. Oregon State (10-16/4-11)
Last week: 11
Results: lost to UCLA 62-47, beat USC 61-58
Next up: at Washington State (Thursday)
NET ranking: 208
Comment: With the Washington trip, then home dates with Oregon and the Bay Area schools, the Beavers could finish with six conference wins. Even five would constitute a clear sign of progress.
12. Cal (3-22/2-12)
Last week: 12
Results: lost to Arizona 85-62 and ASU 70-62 (OT)
Next up: at USC (Thursday)
NET ranking: 296
Comment: The 292 teams in Division I that rank ahead of Cal in offensive efficiency (according to the Pomeroy ratings) include McNeese State, Bellarmine, Purdue Fort Wayne and Longwood.