Inside the NHL
TORONTO — Hall of Fame goalie Patrick Roy, as great a hockey-card collector in his playing days as he was a netminder, made an ill-timed business decision 30 years ago this season.
Roy partnered with Upper Deck on a promotion in Montreal that featured his hockey-card photo with the French words “Echange Roy” — literal translation: “Trade Roy” (as in trade his card among friends) — splashed in boldfaced type across highway billboards. The cheeky play on words was meant to stop traffic at the sacrilegious suggestion of dealing the star Montreal Canadiens goaltender.
But instead, after witnessing Roy allow some soft goals for his mediocre team all winter, the running gag among fans was that the goalie had stumbled upon a fabulous idea. A midseason poll by the city’s largest newspaper found that 57% of readers favored trading Roy for real.
But Roy, as he was known to do, flipped a proverbial switch come April and outdueled opposing goalie and current Pittsburgh Penguins general manager Ron Hextall in the opening round of the playoffs. A record 10 consecutive overtime wins later, Roy was hoisting his second Stanley Cup, and fans who had mocked his billboard ad were raining thunderous applause upon “Saint Patrick” from the stands.
Which is a long way of saying: Don’t listen to fans when it comes to goaltending.
The only predictable thing about goalies is they will eventually be unpredictable. But the good ones, more often than not, can get on a roll when needed.
And that brings us to the Kraken, winning again after a curious event last week in which goaltender Philipp Grubauer was pulled early in a loss to the Edmonton Oilers — having allowed three goals on five shots. Climate Pledge Arena fans applauded the move, indicating loud and clear that they wanted Martin Jones between the pipes.
The fact Jones has won twice since undoubtedly will heighten debate about whether he should be the team’s No. 1 netminder. To which I’d caution: Be careful what you wish for.
Look, I love that a goalie signed as a stopgap is 16-5-3 for a team with 20 victories overall. You can’t ask for more from any backup — which is what Jones was before Grubauer got hurt for five weeks in October.
And a backup is likely what Jones still is, no matter what the Kraken say for public consumption. That’s not a knock on Jones, just the reality of the NHL and what’s gone on in front of Kraken goalies all season.
Just as Roy led his team to a championship three decades ago, the majority of winning squads before and since relied primarily on one goalie — not two — to carry them into the playoffs and beyond.
And that higher upside is why Grubauer was acquired. As a starter in Colorado, he’s done it more recently than Jones and is more likely to repeat it.
Grubauer has had a rough go perception-wise among fans after some bad starts early last season but has improved. And since returning from a lower-body injury in late November, he’s managed multiple above average performances — most recently in stopping 41 of 44 shots against Calgary.
Grubauer’s biggest issue has been doing it consistently. Finding a rhythm is always challenging coming off injury, and getting pulled four minutes into the Oilers game probably didn’t help.
I asked Grubauer the day after the Edmonton loss about the challenges of finding a groove.
“For every week that you miss, I think it takes a game to kind of catch-up as a goalie,” said Grubauer, who’s made nine starts post-injury. “Obviously, the first two or three games it’s different. You can practice all you want, but once you’re getting into the game and catching up on plays and reading the game it’s a little bit tricky the first couple. But sometimes it comes quick. Sometimes it comes a little bit slower. But yeah. It just takes some time.”
It also takes help, as Kraken goalies are often only as good as the defenders in front of them.
Jones was in goal for the best stretch of Kraken play all season during Grubauer’s absence. But right as Grubauer came off injured reserve, Jones recorded three consecutive victories despite allowing five, four and eight goals.
The players in front of him abandoned defense but maintained enough offense to outscore their problems.
“To be blunt, we found some success that way,” Kraken coach Dave Hakstol said last week. “When you look over the past six weeks, there’s been some games where we got away with it — for lack of a better term. We were able to offensively get ourselves through games and come away with two points. And that’s just not reality.”
And reality caught up to the Kraken just as Grubauer began playing regularly again.
Even with inconsistent play in front of him, Grubauer has had more good outings than bad. He just hasn’t gotten into a winning groove, largely because opponents such as the Oilers were afforded a shooting gallery.
Grubauer’s experience against the Oilers was far different than Jones had the next game, when the Kraken — under orders to tighten up defensively — held the New York Islanders without a shot the first 9 1/2 minutes.
Despite Jones’ strong record, advanced stats suggest the 3-7-1 Grubauer might be the better goalie to this point.
The Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) metric from the Evolving Hockey website shows Jones having allowed 3.43 more goals than “expected” given shot quality. Grubauer has allowed only 1.28 more than expected. That’s below average, but he was in positive territory before the Edmonton debacle.
The Money Puck website has Jones slightly ahead in GSAx with 1.7 goals allowed beyond expected, compared with 1.8 for Grubauer.
But remember, Grubauer is still finding his rhythm and likely not close to peaking. After his first 13 outings a year ago, he’d allowed an NHL-worst 14 more goals than expected. So there’s been improvement with room to grow.
Bottom line: When the Kraken play their two-way system, they can make Jones appear to have discovered a fountain of youth. And when they don’t, they can make fans forget Grubauer was a Vezina Trophy finalist two seasons ago.
But perception isn’t always reality. This team must afford both goalies room to consistently play to their strengths. And hope one grabs the stretch-run reins, still most likely the guy now getting cheers when he’s pulled off the ice.