This time last year, I prognosticated that Washington would finish 10-2 in 2021, including a statement nonconference road win at Michigan and narrow divisional losses to Oregon and Stanford.
It might go without writing, but it went much worse.
Now, following a 4-8 fiasco and the in-season firing of Jimmy Lake, first-year head coach Kalen DeBoer is here to flip the Huskies’ fortunes. But just how quickly can he steady the ship? And can I successfully avoid a second season of eternal embarrassment?
Let’s get to the predictions.
Sept. 3 | KENT STATE | Husky Stadium | 7:30 p.m. | FS1
Outlook: It won’t take long to gather whether Washington still struggles to stop the run. Kent State finished third in the nation in rushing offense (248.8 yards per game) and ninth in yards per carry (5.38) last fall. With a first-time starting quarterback in Collin Schlee, expect the Golden Flashes to run early and often inside Husky Stadium.
Of course, that strategy will suffer if UW seizes a significant lead. Kent State also ranked 121st in the nation in scoring defense in 2021, surrendering 36.3 points per game.
Prediction: Huskies 41, Golden Flashes 17
Sept. 10 | PORTLAND STATE | Husky Stadium | 1 p.m. | Pac-12 Washington
Outlook: Washington has won its two meetings against Portland State by a combined score of 93-16. The Vikings, meanwhile, haven’t toppled an FBS opponent since besting Washington State and Mike Leach in 2015.
Montana’s season-opening upset of UW last fall left an indelible mark on Montlake. But Portland State is not Montana.
Prediction: Huskies 48, Vikings 10
Sept. 17 | MICHIGAN STATE | Husky Stadium | 4:30 p.m. | ABC
Outlook: Michigan State’s 11-2 record in 2021 might have been a bit deceptive — with a favorable early schedule, an overtime win over Nebraska, deflating late losses to Purdue and Ohio State, and a bowl win over a Pitt team without star quarterback Kenny Pickett. Star running back Ken Walker is also now a Seattle Seahawk.
Still, the Spartans are plenty talented … and Washington (which was throttled by Michigan last fall) has yet to prove it can play with a premier Big Ten opponent. Quarterback Payton Thorne is back for Michigan State, and the Spartans led the Big Ten in sacks in 2021 (while also finishing dead last in the nation in pass defense). Mel Tucker hit the transfer portal hard this offseason in an attempt to address some glaring weaknesses.
If that Michigan State pass defense is still lacking, the Husky wideouts might have an opportunity to expose a shoddy secondary and secure a huge home win. But we’ll have to see it to believe it.
Prediction: Spartans 30, Huskies 24
Sept. 24 | STANFORD | Husky Stadium | TBD | TBD
Outlook: Stanford went 3-9 in 2021 and closed its season with seven consecutive losses, including an ugly 20-13 home defeat to an also-uninspiring UW team that hadn’t won on “The Farm” since 2007. And like Washington, Stanford struggled both to run the ball and stop the run — ranking last in the Pac-12 in rushing offense (86.8 yards per game), rushing defense (235.7 yards allowed per game) and opponent yards per carry (5.74).
And yet … Tanner McKee might just be the best Pac-12 quarterback no one is talking about, and UW and Stanford’s last five meetings have been decided by an average of 6.8 points. Washington should kick off Pac-12 play with a win, but it won’t be easy.
Prediction: Huskies 27, Cardinal 20
Sept. 30 | at UCLA | Pasadena, California | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN
Outlook: Last season’s 24-17 home loss to UCLA wasn’t as close as the score suggests. And yet, DeBoer and Co. know what it takes to beat the Bruins in the Rose Bowl — after Fresno State won a 40-37 nonconference thriller, perhaps the most entertaining game of the 2021 season.
Quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Zach Charbonnet are both back for UCLA, and Chip Kelly believes it’s his most complete team as he enters his fifth season in Pasadena. Let’s give UCLA a narrow home edge.
Prediction: Bruins 34, Huskies 30
Oct. 8 | at Arizona State | Tempe, Arizona | TBD | TBD
Outlook: It’s been more than two decades since UW last salvaged a road win at Arizona State, escaping with a 33-31 victory in 2001. Seven consecutive losses have followed. But these aren’t the same Sun Devils.
Quarterback Jayden Daniels and receivers Ricky Pearsall and LV Bunkley-Shelton plunged into the transfer portal, and standout running back Rachaad White was drafted by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In comes Florida transfer quarterback Emory Jones, who should be an impact addition. But Arizona State was picked to finish 10th in the Pac-12 for a reason. The Sun Devils’ lack of depth will be exposed against UW.
Prediction: Huskies 31, Sun Devils 20
Oct. 15 | ARIZONA | Husky Stadium | TBD | TBD
Outlook: Now at Arizona, quarterback Jayden de Laura will return to UW after planting a WSU flag in the Husky Stadium turf following the Cougs’ Apple Cup win last fall. And while de Laura is surrounded by some intriguing transfers and an encouraging signing class, this is still an Arizona team that has lost 23 of its last 24 games.
Jedd Fisch is building something in Tucson. But it’s going to take time.
Prediction: Huskies 34, Wildcats 24
Oct. 22 | at Cal | Berkeley, California | TBD | TBD
Outlook: Cal can’t seem to get over the hump, with an uninspiring 26-28 record in Justin Wilcox’s five seasons at the helm (including 15-25 in Pac-12 play). Longtime starting quarterback Chase Garbers is (finally) gone, replaced by Purdue transfer Jack Plummer. Leading rusher Christopher Brooks has also transferred to BYU. On the other side, linebacker Jackson Sirmon — who led the Huskies in tackles last fall — has been reunited with his dad, defensive coordinator Peter Sirmon.
New faces aside, UW has too much firepower for the Golden Bears to overcome.
Prediction: Huskies 24, Bears 20
Nov. 4 | OREGON STATE | Husky Stadium | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN2
Outlook: Oregon State snapped a nine-game losing streak against Washington last fall, despite being outgained 318 to 290. The Beavers reached a bowl game for the first time in the Jonathan Smith era, thanks to a balanced offense that finished second in the Pac-12 in both pass efficiency rating (142.24) and yards per carry (5.30).
With quarterback Chance Nolan back, can the Beavers be even better? Can they win in Seattle for the first time since 2008?
Maybe to the first question. No to the second.
Prediction: Huskies 27, Beavers 21
Nov. 12 | at Oregon | Eugene, Oregon | TBD | TBD
Outlook: Oregon never lacks for talent, but the Ducks have to answer some key questions if they’re going to make a legitimate playoff run. Namely, can former Auburn quarterback Bo Nix elevate his game in Eugene? And is new head coach Dan Lanning (not to mention offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham) ready for the role?
DeBoer’s tenure, like all other UW coaches, will be defined somewhat by his ability to beat Oregon. But that’s probably too much to ask this fall.
Prediction: Ducks 31, Huskies 21
Nov. 19 | COLORADO | Husky Stadium | TBD | TBD
Outlook: Last season’s road loss at Colorado was statistically bizarre, as UW outgained the Buffs 426-183 and finished with 13 more first downs than its opponent … in a 20-17 defeat. That was thanks in part to two Dylan Morris interceptions and an 88-yard fumble return touchdown.
Though UW has lost consecutive games to Colorado, the Huskies remain the more talented team. Barring another 88-yard fumble return, they should prove it.
Prediction: Huskies 40, Buffs 21
Nov. 26 | at Washington State | Pullman | TBD | TBD
Outlook: Is Cameron Ward as good as the Cougars think he is? Their 2022 outlook might hinge on the answer. It’ll also be interesting to see how the WSU defense looks in Jake Dickert’s first full season at head coach, with defensive line stalwarts Ron Stone and Brennan Jackson and Nevada transfer linebacker Daiyan Henley.
It’s hard to judge much from last season’s UW Apple Cup defeat, considering a true freshman quarterback (Sam Huard) was making his first career start while a lame duck staff steered a sinking ship. Still, the Cougs will be motivated to prove it wasn’t a fluke … and they’ve got the players on offense to make a statement. The Apple Cup is staying east.
Prediction: Cougs 31, Huskies 30
Season: 8-4, 6-3 Pac-12