RENTON — The last two games of the 2022 season were always something of a hole card for the Seahawks.
At least, according to coach Pete Carroll, who said he long ago looked at the contests against the New York Jets and Los Angeles Rams and their location — the friendly, and hopefully typically loud and intimidating confines of Lumen Field — as games he figured would determine the course of Seattle’s season.
“We’ve known it all year long that it is going to come down to these games,” Carroll said Friday. “Nothing has changed in that regard.”
Well, there was a time when the Seahawks were riding high at 6-3 and in front of the NFC West that they hoped there might be even more on the line than there is.
Back then, during that heady week when Seattle traveled to Munich, a playoff spot seemed a given, and a division title and a home game in the postseason seemed a good possibility.
Five losses in six games — and three straight at home, which obviously raises some question about how much of an advantage it really is anymore playing at Lumen — dashed those hopes.
Still, what remains to play for — the 10th playoff spot in Carroll’s 13 years as coach and a 10th winning season in the past 11 years — is still quite a bit.
A winning season, though, goes out the window without a win against the Jets with Seattle standing at 7-8.
And a playoff berth could, too, depending on results elsewhere.
As Carroll said Friday, “the urgency is obviously there.”
In fact, the formula for being eliminated isn’t all that outlandish.
A Seattle loss and a Washington win over Cleveland at home and the Seahawks are done.
That combination of events is actually what the Vegas oddsmakers were expecting by the end of the week, with the Jets having become a 1.5-point favorite over Seattle and Washington a 2-point favorite over Cleveland.
Seattle is also eliminated if it loses and both Green Bay and Detroit win, and the Packers (3.5 points at home over the Vikings) and the Lions (six points at home over the Bears) are each also favored to win.
Conversely, a win by the Seahawks coupled with losses by Washington, Green Bay and Detroit raise Seattle’s playoff odds to 66%, via fivethirtyeight.com.
And maybe the simplest way Seattle can get a playoff berth is with a win and just one loss by each of Washington and Green Bay.
But the most important part of that from a Seattle standpoint is the Seahawks getting two wins at home.
“We want to go out and play really well here and finish up and get ready,” Carroll said. “We have to get ready to keep playing. That’s what this is all about.”
To do so, they’ll have to hope the resurgence of the defense and the running game evident in Kansas City last week (despite a 24-10 loss) continues.
The Seahawks out-gained the Chiefs 235-116 in the second half, including 107-21 on the ground, averaging 5.35 yards per carry, with rookie Kenneth Walker III gaining 91 on 17 carries.
That second-half total by Walker alone was more than Seattle had in a game since gaining 158 on the ground in a win over Arizona on Nov. 6 — maybe not-so-coincidentally, the win that got them to 6-3 before the recent fade.
But the Jets figure to pose a stiff test, with a defense under head coach Robert Saleh — who was defensive quality control coach with the Seahawks from 2011-13 — allowing just 4.0 yards per carry, sixth in the NFL, led by standout defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, a fourth-year player out of Alabama who also has 12 sacks.
“He’s a fantastic player,” Carroll said. “There are some teams that we play that have a player that jumps out at you. They cause enough problems and draw enough attention that they make everybody play well around them. He’s one of those guys for sure.”
The betting line, which began the week with Seattle favored by 1.5, jumped in New York’s favor after it was revealed early in the week that the Jets will start Mike White at quarterback ahead of struggling second-year player Zach Wilson, with veteran Joe Flacco slated to be the backup.
White, a five-year veteran, has just six NFL starts and has started only three games this season — the only three he has played. But he led the Jets to a blowout 31-10 win over the Bears and competitive losses on the road against the Vikings (27-22) and Buffalo (20-12), completing 62% of his passes with a 3-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, before suffering a rib injury that sidelined him.
The Jets scored just 20 combined points in losses to Detroit and Jacksonville the past two weeks under Wilson to extend their losing streak to four before deciding to go back to a now-healthy White.
“He’s a big quarterback, a big kid,” Carroll said of the 6-4, 218-pound White. “He stands great in the pocket, and really demonstrated that he can make all the throws over the middle and up the sidelines and all of that. He’s been quick with the ball in getting it out, too, in their quick rhythm stuff. He’s looked really good.”
And while that losing streak dropped the Jets’ record to the same 7-8 as Seattle, like the Seahawks they still have playoff life, helped by Green Bay’s win on Christmas over Miami.
A loss, though, eliminates the Jets.
So, it’ll be two teams who know that Sunday basically determines if the first day of the new year marks the end of the season.
“Everybody knows what it is,” said Seahawks linebacker Jordyn Brooks. “Two games that are must-wins. I think we have to approach it like every other week, can’t be too high or too low. You have to approach it like every other week and take care of business.”