Pete Carroll’s record against the New Orleans Saints looks a little spotty at first glance — just 1-4 as coach of the Seahawks.
But that doesn’t include two playoff wins, two of the biggest in Seahawks history — the Beast Quake game against the defending Super Bowl champion Saints following the 2010 season, and a divisional playoff win en route to a Super Bowl title following the 2013 season.
Carroll has lost both of his trips to New Orleans as coach of the Seahawks including the most recent, 25-20 in 2016, and three in a row, including a 13-10 win for the Saints at Lumen Field last year.
He gets another crack at the Saints on Sunday.
Here are our weekly keys to the game and prediction.
Matchup to watch
Seahawks front seven vs. Saints RB Alvin Kamara
Kamara has played in just two of the first four games for the 1-3 Saints because of injury. But he’s expected to be ready for the Seahawks, and that’s a sight that only further sores Seattle’s eyes. Kamara has been something of a Seahawks killer in leading the Saints to wins over the Seahawks at Lumen Field in 2019 and 2021 with a combined 19 catches for 220 yards and two touchdowns as well as another touchdown rushing. Suffice to say, Kamara will be another huge challenge for a defense that has struggled.
Player to watch
WR DK Metcalf
While Metcalf didn’t admit it, it certainly appeared as if he took it as a challenge last week going against Detroit cornerback Jeffrey Okudah — the third overall pick in the 2020 draft — catching seven passes for 149 yards, the third-highest yardage total of his career. Now he comes up against another big-name cornerback in Marshon Lattimore, who held him to two receptions a year ago (albeit, one going for an 84-yard touchdown). Carroll said he felt last week’s breakout illustrated the growing chemistry between QB Geno Smith and Metcalf, who missed all of the offseason program while recovering from foot surgery. Getting production against Lattimore, who figures to match up against Metcalf, will be an even bigger sign.
Coaching decision to watch
Defensive personnel changes
The Lions scored 45 points last week against the Seahawks, the second-highest total they have allowed and still emerged with the win. That came on the heels of giving up 27 in a loss to the Falcons. Coaches hinted at continuing to tinker with personnel to try to stop the bleeding, specifically using Ryan Neal more — in the base defense as a safety and in three-safety looks — as well as rookie edge rusher Boye Mafe. They might also use former Husky Sidney Jones IV more at left cornerback in place of Michael Jackson.
The X-factor
New Orleans’ London hangover
The Saints not only lost an especially tough one last week — a game that went down to the final play and wasn’t decided until kicker Will Lutz’ 61-yard field goal hit the upright and cross bar and fell no good, allowing the Vikings to escape —- and had a long trip home from London. Teams that play in London often take their byes the following week, but the Saints opted for one in December. Will the loss and the trip linger? The Saints will be counting on a boost from their home crowd. This is just the second game they have played at the Superdome this year.
Player who could surprise
RB DeeJay Dallas
Starting running back Rashaad Penny and backup Kenneth Walker III played all but three snaps at running back last week as each filled in on third downs. That role that previously gone to Travis Homer, who suffered a rib injury against Atlanta and is out at least three more games. Penny and Walker missed time this week in practice with shoulder soreness and the Saints are known for doling out the punishment on defense. That may mean the Seahawks will need some snaps from Dallas, the only other running back on the 53-man roster and adept at handling the third-down/two-minute role if needed.
Key stat
Turnover differential
Turnovers are such an obvious stat that they are often not worth mentioning. But it feels like they are this week given New Orleans’ issues. The Saints have been a turnover machine, losing an NFL-high 11 — two more than any other team — and with a differential of minus-seven that is worst in the league. An interception return for a touchdown and a fumble returned for a touchdown contributed heavily in the Saints’ two losses, which came by 10 points (to Tampa Bay) and eight (to Carolina). The Seahawks have an even turnover differential (losing six and gaining six), scoring 14 points off two Detroit turnovers last week that were as much of a difference as anything in fending off the Lions. The Seahawks are 2-1 this year when winning the TO battle and 44-7 since the 2015 season.
Prediction
Saints 27, Seahawks 21
Two long trips in two weeks might catch up to the Seahawks. So might a Saints team that statistically is a bit better than its 1-3 record may indicate. The Seahawks need to force the Saints into a few turnovers to win this one, but the odds feel against them here.