Inside the NHL
Securing three of a possible four points to finish what was becoming a disastrous road trip underscored some realities for a Kraken team relying on its sum to be greater than individual parts.
The good news? It will likely take a Titanic-level collapse for the second-year Kraken to miss the playoffs. As for the not-so-great reality, a team built on depth rather than elite-level players is having increased difficulty beating the types of squads it would face in the postseason.
Since last month’s franchise-record eight-game win streak, the Kraken have gone just 1-5-2 playing the likely playoff-bound New Jersey Devils twice and single games against the contending Tampa Bay Lightning, Edmonton Oilers, Colorado Avalanche, New York Rangers, New Jersey Devils and Winnipeg Jets.
The Kraken also lost to the Calgary Flames and New York Islanders, both playoff “bubble” teams.
With the March 3 NHL trade deadline approaching, teams have begun upgrading with elite performers such as the Islanders acquiring center Bo Horvat and the Rangers landing winger Vladimir Tarasenko. For the Kraken to do much come playoff time, they’ll likely need to bolster their own ranks.
But Kraken general manager Ron Francis has stressed the need to balance the present and future, so it’s unclear how far he’d go in upgrading.
Francis might not even need to do anything to get the Kraken into the playoffs. As I wrote a week ago, it’s tough to gain significant ground in NHL races because of so called “loser points” given to teams losing in overtime and shootouts. The Kraken a week ago had a five-point lead on Calgary for the final Western Conference playoff spot and as of Wednesday were still up by that much despite dropping three of four games since, including Tuesday’s shootout loss to Winnipeg that garnered a “loser point.”
So despite plenty going wrong, nothing changed. The Money Puck analytics website still had the Kraken as a 93.3% playoff certainty, only slightly off 95% from a week ago.
With arguably the toughest part of their schedule complete, the Kraken will face more teams they should be beating regularly, such as the Philadelphia Flyers at home Thursday night and Detroit Red Wings on Saturday.
As for Kraken weaknesses that can be upgraded, we can probably eliminate goaltending. Philipp Grubauer has been consistently strong going on two months.
But Grubauer can’t score.
In the dozen games since their epic win streak, the Kraken have scored four or more goals in regulation only twice. Beyond the obvious injury to Andre Burakovsky, their lack of elite offensive players looms — evidenced by the team’s abysmal power play and going 0-3 in shootout rounds.
Both areas are typically where elite offensive players shine. And though the Kraken won’t have to contend with shootouts come playoff time, the power-play shortcomings risk magnifying by regular season’s end.
The Kraken actually lead the NHL in even-strength goals scored per 60 minutes, but they sit only 22nd of 32 teams in that statistic on the power play. So fixing the power play with some elite specialization might bolster the Kraken exponentially.
With Horvat and Tarasenko gone, the biggest remaining potential trade targets are San Jose Sharks winger Timo Meier, and standout scoring defenseman Erik Karlsson as well as Arizona Coyotes two-way defender Jaykob Chychrun. Any would add a power-play boost and are under team control through at least next season, though inevitably at a heavy trade cost.
The Kraken are unlikely to deal next summer’s first-round draft pick but have three second-rounders stockpiled from which to form a trade package. Their best trade commodity might be last summer’s No. 4 overall selection, Shane Wright. But a team lacking elite talent upfront would understandably be reluctant to deal a center prospect pegged as a future star.
Making that trade would require the Kraken landing more of a sure thing who could fast-forward the development process. Instead of waiting several seasons for Wright to blossom, the Kraken could deal him for an existing NHL player further along — such as a Chychrun, 24, or a Meier, 26 — who could immediately help the power play and overall offense.
But such a move could require the Kraken to negotiate a contract extension in advance, as the Islanders did before inking Horvat to an eight-year, $68 million deal. The Kraken keep getting linked to Meier via trade rumors, but it remains to be seen whether Francis would push that hard in just the franchise’s second year.
Karlsson, 32, makes sense for many teams, including the Kraken — who recently acquired his defense partner and good friend, Jaycob Megna. But Karlsson at his age could cost more than the Kraken would part with for a player whose downside years might be just around the corner.
For now, Edmonton is a rumored Karlsson destination. Likewise, Los Angeles is rumored to be highly interested in Chychrun. If such deals occur, they’d potentially impact the Kraken in the divisional race and any playoff matchup with those teams.
Some cheaper, rental-player alternatives could include pending unrestricted-free-agent centermen and team captains Ryan O’Reilly, 32, of the St. Louis Blues and Jonathan Toews, 34, of the Chicago Blackhawks.
Besides Cup-winning pedigrees and proven firepower, both are exceptionally good at winning faceoffs. The Kraken have the NHL’s second-worst faceoff percentage on the power play at 44.3% and third-lowest overall at 45.5%.
It’s tough to score with the man advantage when you immediately lose possession of the puck.
Toews, who played for Kraken coach Dave Hakstol at the University of North Dakota, has won 63.3% of faceoffs this season and career-wise is at 57%. O’Reilly has won 54% this season and is at 56% for his career.
Again, both fit short-term needs and could leave as free agents. But a team with youngsters Wright and Matty Beniers doesn’t necessarily need veteran centers sticking around.
So those are some options for Francis to better a club appearing to need a difference-maker or two.
One final, less exciting path is to stand pat, maybe make additional depth moves and be content merely with making the playoffs.
Given modest Kraken expectations at the season’s outset, it’s quite possible the fan base would be fine with a one-and-done playoff appearance. After all, it wouldn’t require sacrificing future pieces and would build hope entering next season.
As for hoping the Kraken make a deep playoff run this spring, the mounting evidence suggests they’ll need more than they’ve got.