One thing we know about the 2022 Seahawks through four games is to take the over.
After Sunday’s 48-45 win over the Lions, the template suddenly seems set of a team capable of scoring at will — at least against a defense as bad as Detroit’s — but capable of being scored on at will, as well.
After Sunday’s offensive outburst the Seahawks are now 11th in points scored at 23.75 per game. But after Sunday’s multiple defensive collapses, Seattle is now 31st in points allowed at 28.8 per game. Only one team in Seahawks history has allowed a greater average for a season — the inaugural team in 1976, that gave up 30.6 points per game.
But that wasn’t all we learned Sunday. In our weekly Four Downs, beat reporter Bob Condotta reviews a few lingering questions.
So can Geno Smith keep this up?
OK, so everything with Sunday’s game comes with the caveat that Detroit’s defense, as noted earlier, is bad. That said, Seattle did to a bad defense what a good offense should do to a bad defense, led by Smith, who is almost past the time when his numbers come with the asterisk of a small sample size.
Since coach Pete Carroll said two weeks ago the Seahawks needed to not “hold back” Smith anymore and give him total command of the offense, he has completed 55 of 74 passes for 625 yards, four touchdowns and one interception (the fourth-down desperation toss against Atlanta).
His 77.3% completion rate is the highest in NFL history through four games. And with the offense opening up the last two weeks, he is also now averaging 7.9 yards per pass attempt, tied for fourth in the NFL
Smith has started seven games for the Seahawks, along with two relief appearances, including most of the second half of the Rams game last year when Russell Wilson was injured — or, essentially, just about a half of a season.
In his Seattle career Smith is now 171 of 232 (73.7%), 1,772 yards, 11 touchdowns, three interceptions, and a rating of 105.7.
“It’s all coming together for him,” Carroll said on his radio show on Seattle Sports 710 Monday morning.
Hard to argue.
What is the key offensive stat so far this season?
Seattle hit on 9 of 12 third-down conversion attempts Sunday, continuing a good start to the season in that category. The Seahawks are now second in the NFL in third-down conversion percentage for the season at 55.3, hitting on 26 of 47.
It helped Sunday that Seattle had seven third downs of 5 yards or fewer, converting six of those. But Seattle also hit on a third-and-7 early when Smith scrambled for 17 yards, and a third-and-16 in the third quarter when Smith audibled to a run and Rashaad Penny rumbled 36 yards.
Seattle has mostly been a subpar third-down team the last six years, never hitting on more than 40% for a season since 2015.
“That’s big time,” Carroll said of the third-down numbers, while largely crediting Smith for that success.
“He’s doing a great job of utilizing the plays that are in the plan,” Carroll said. “… He’s the one that’s got to make it happen, make the calls in the protections, make the reads right, got to deliver the football.”
Rashaad Penny still has it, doesn’t he?
For the first time this year, the Seattle offense had an almost perfect melding of its running game (33 attempts for 235 yards) and pass (30 attempts for 320 yards).
Penny had 151 yards on 17 carries, getting 143 yards on 12 carries in the second half alone. That included touchdown runs of 41 and 36 yards. Penny now has 13 rushing touchdowns with the Seahawks — 10 are of 15 yards or more, seven of 32 yards or more, with an average of 28.9 yards on his TD runs overall.
“He has this marvelous ability to just explode on plays, and it looks like nobody else is on the field,” Carroll said.
Penny had been somewhat contained the first three weeks with 141 yards on 32 carries, though Carroll had made it clear that was mostly through no fault of his own.
But given a little room to run Sunday, Penny picked up where he left off last season. After leading the NFL in yards per carry last season at 6.3, he is now seventh at 6.0.
And he may prove that the Seahawks got a bargain signing him to a one-year deal in March for $5.75 million, the 16th-highest average salary for a running back this year.
Is the defense fixable?
We’ve saved the worst for last. But it’s hard to even know what to say about the Seattle defense at this point after its poorest game of the year, coming on the heels of two shaky outings in Weeks 2 and 3.
Seattle changed some things up Sunday in the wake of the Atlanta loss, starting Darryl Johnson at outside linebacker ahead of Darrell Taylor (though Johnson played just 14 snaps before suffering an ankle injury) and using Ryan Neal in three-safety sets, which usually had the effect of taking linebacker Cody Barton off the field.
Neal played 36 snaps, 49%, while Barton played 46, or 62%, after playing 94%, 96% and 100% of the snaps in the first three games. Seattle also went with a rotation at left cornerback with Sidney Jones IV playing 22 snaps and Michael Jackson 48.
But nothing seemed to work as the Lions gained 520 yards — 305 in the second half alone.
One caveat is that Detroit’s offense has put up big numbers on everyone — the Lions lead the NFL in points at 35 per game. But Sunday the Lions were without four of their best offensive players, including leading rusher D’Andre Swift and leading receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Carroll said Monday tackling — which had been such an issue the first two weeks in particular — wasn’t really the main problem, noting by his count Seattle had five missed tackles (Pro Football Focus had the Seahawks with six, a season low), though there were a few really key ones on two of Detroit’s biggest plays.
They better figure out something soon, because while shootouts are fun to watch, it’s hard to win them all.