You can always blame “the book.”
It is one of football’s most mysterious, oft-criticized guides — a user’s manual for fourth-down daring, a mathematical reservoir for calculated risk. It can be a light in the darkness, or a betrayer of trust.
Put simply: “the book” is an analytical resource that provides coaches with recommendations on whether to go for it or punt on fourth down.
Its contents, however, are not so simple.
“Honestly, I’d have to sit with you for a couple hours to really explain everything that goes into ‘the book,’” UW associate head coach and pass game coordinator JaMarcus Shephard said Wednesday. “But it certainly has downs and distances, home and away, current score of the game. It has all that information compiled to help you make a decision as to whether or not you should be aggressive. So there’s a lot of information in there.
“And to be quite honest, I understand about 95% of it. There’s still a little bit of it (I don’t get) — because I’m not looking at it every single day (as the head coach or play-caller) — as to why they put this situation as a ‘go’ and this one as not a ‘go.’ It’s much more detailed than just, ‘Hey, it’s fourth down. Go for it.’”
On Monday, offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb added that “’the book’ changes slightly depending on your kicking game and defensive circumstances and the opponent and all those things.”
Yes, “the book” can be both complicated and controversial.
Take last weekend’s loss at Arizona State.
Trailing 24-17 with 11:42 left in the third quarter, UW faced a fourth-and-1 from its own 32. The Huskies had just failed to convert on third-and-5, with running back Wayne Taulapapa cruelly tripping on the turf a yard shy of the marker.
“We’re going!” UW coach Kalen DeBoer yelled into his headset.
So, surprisingly, Washington went … and an end-around to wide receiver Rome Odunze was stoned for a momentum-reversing three-yard loss.
“We just went with ‘the book,’” Grubb said Monday, two days after UW’s 45-38 defeat. “It told us to go. It was less than a yard. We had a play we were super confident in and obviously that didn’t pan out for us.”
That’s putting it lightly. Arizona State — which went three-and-out the previous series, after scoring 17 points in three first-half drives — punched in a 10-yard touchdown five plays later.
That touchdown was the difference in a seven-point defeat.
“I think that was by far our most aggressive call (of the season), just judging by field position and where we were at,” Grubb said. “It was early enough in the game where you hope you can recover from something like that. That was certainly worst-case scenario: you don’t get it and then on top of it they go down and score. So those are the risks you have to know are associated with that.”
DeBoer knows this … but he won’t blame “the book.”
UW’s first-year coach makes the final call.
“To me, it’s still only a recommendation,” he said. “We’ve done a good job of preparing and game planning. You have a few more third down and six and seven and eight calls in your arsenal, because you might not always throw it a higher percentage. You might be OK (running it on third down and then) being fourth-and-1 and fourth-and-2.
“I’ve trusted my gut most of those times over 20 years and won a fair share of games doing that. And I’ve gone against (“the book”) quite a few times already this year, what the recommendation was. That time I just really felt confident that we’d get the first down.”
DeBoer’s confidence is understandable. UW has converted 64.71% of its fourth down attempts, ranking fourth in the Pac-12 and 29th in the nation. The week prior, a fourth-and-6 gamble yielded a 33-yard touchdown to Odunze on UW’s opening drive.
But given UW’s underwhelming defense, as well as its precarious field position, did the potential risk outweigh the reward?
“You can’t be reckless. You can’t be careless,” DeBoer said. “Obviously on your own 30-yard line people are going to argue that. But that’s kind of how we’ve gone about it over many years, playing confident.
“It’s not just a belief in your offense, OK? It’s having talked about it defensively and it being known to them that they’re going to be put in some tough spots, and that they’re OK with it. This is an opportunity for them to rise up and make a statement of their own. Unfortunately that didn’t happen. But that doesn’t mean that we can’t learn from it, grow, and dig even deeper when it does happen again. We’ve gone for it quite a few times this year.”
That is a seismic understatement. UW’s 17 attempts in six games this season ranks tied for ninth in the nation. Moreover, the Huskies’ 2.83 fourth down attempts per game are the program’s most since it started recording the statistic in 1976.
“I love the aggressive nature of our offense,” Shephard said. “That’s what the fans really want to see. They want to see you be aggressive in how you approach the football game. Obviously we try to do it in a very smart manner, but we also want to be aggressive, and I think we’re showing that every single week on fourth downs. At the end of the day everybody’s on the same page. We’ve practiced these things. It’s not just a spur of the moment decision that’s being made by anyone.”
UW’s uptick in aggressiveness also reflects a national trend. FBS programs are averaging 1.86 fourth down attempts per game this season, after averaging 1.75 in 2021, 1.85 in 2020, 1.67 in 2019, 1.69 in 2018 and 1.59 in 2017. Grubb said “even in the last three years it’s shifted a lot. It’s more of an aggressive mindset.”
DeBoer, for one, is certainly an aggressor … which may come as somewhat of a surprise. Last fall, after all, Fresno State went for it on fourth down just 15 times in 13 games — ranking tied for 115th in the nation. (The Bulldogs converted eight of those 15 attempts, 53.3%.)
Grubb, who was the offensive coordinator at Fresno State, said “we’ve been very efficient moving the ball (this season) and not getting a lot of negative yardage plays. So we’re in a lot of ‘go’ positions. I think last year’s offense, we weren’t quite as efficient at times. There was more long yardage go’s. So we’re getting all these four-yard go’s and three-yard go’s (this season). Last year I think we honestly had less opportunities at those.”
Washington went just 1 for 4 on fourth down against Arizona State. But will those missed opportunities force DeBoer and Co. to back off from “the book”?
On Monday, Grubb said simply: “It can’t.”