Of all the numbers that became associated with Geno Smith’s contract the past few days, the most important had yet to be revealed before Friday — the salary cap hits and, most vitally, the hit for 2023.
But the cap hits finally were unearthed Friday afternoon and only reiterated what a good deal this appears to be for the Seahawks, while still rewarding Smith with the kind of payday he’d never had previously in his 10 NFL seasons.
Specifically, Smith’s contract carries just a $10.1 million salary cap hit for the 2023 season, via OverTheCap.com, below what most of those who made educated guesses on how the deal might turn out figured it would be.
Those cap hits balloon to $31.2 million and $33.7 million in 2024 and 2025, respectively. But those are years that either might not happen or could be massaged some to bring down those numbers.
As for 2023, Smith’s cap hit is just the seventh-highest on the team behind safety Jamal Adams ($18.11 million), safety Quandre Diggs ($18.1 million), receiver Tyler Lockett ($16.75 million), receiver DK Metcalf ($13.72 million), rush end Uchenna Nwosu ($13.01 million) and defensive lineman Shelby Harris ($12.2 million), and it takes up just 4.6% of the team’s overall cap of $224.8 million.
It’s also just the 19th-highest cap hit for any QB in the NFL in 2023, via Spotrac.com.
According to OverTheCap.com, Seattle has $20.1 million in overall cap space available after accounting for Smith’s contract (and the release Thursday of guard Gabe Jackson, which cleared out $6.5 million), and just over $9 million in effective cap space (which accounts for projected cap space needed for the team’s 10 draft picks).
And the Seahawks can use every dollar of that as they try to improve a team they feel is on the cusp of real competition in 2023 after going a surprising 9-8 in 2022.
Seattle can and almost certainly will make some moves to add to that number (one rumor has involved Harris — his release would give Seattle an extra $8.9 million).
As previously reported, the contract guaranteed Smith $27.3 million at signing — almost $10 million more than the $17.5 million he had previously made in his NFL career.
But as OTC revealed Friday, the breakdown of that number is a $26.1 million signing bonus and a fully guaranteed salary in 2023 of $1.2 million (the minimum salary a player of his veteran status can receive).
The contract also includes a $12.7 million salary for 2024 that is fully guaranteed now for injury, and that becomes fully guaranteed on the fifth day after the 2024 Super Bowl.
More critical are two roster bonuses Smith can receive.
He will get $9.6 million if he is still on the roster five days after the start of the new league year in 2024 and $14.8 million if he is still on the roster on the fifth day after the start of the new league year in 2025.
Each of those dates gives Seattle some flexibility to get out of the contract for whatever reason. And that means Seattle could get out of the contract after one year and just the $27.3 million that Smith was fully guaranteed when he signed the contract Thursday.
As had been previously reported, the contract also includes salary escalators for the 2024 and 2025 seasons that could give Smith an additional $15 million each year.
Those escalators, as first revealed by Pro Football Focus, are essentially for matching or better the numbers Smith put up in 2022.
Specifically, Smith’s salary for the following year increases if in either 2023 or 2024 he passes for 4,282 yards, 30 touchdowns, completes 69.75% of his passes, has a 100.874 passer rating, and does both of playing at least 80% of the snaps while Seattle wins 10 games or makes the playoffs.
If he achieves all five, he gets an extra $5 million. Those would be paid in the form of roster bonuses paid each of the following years, so it would not impact the 2023 cap number — the number the Seahawks were most worried about for now since future cap numbers can always be massaged some (Smith also has a $200,000 workout bonus each season).
It’s those escalators and potential big future payouts that coach Pete Carroll referred to as Smith taking “a little bit of a gamble” on himself.
If Smith were to achieve all five escalators each year, that means cap hits for 2024 and 2025 would balloon to $46.2 million and $48.7 million, respectively, and vault Smith up the list of highest-paid QBs.
At a current $25 million per year, Smith ranks as the 16th-highest paid QB in terms of average per year. But $35 million would move him up to 11th.
But if Smith pulls off all of those numbers and earns that money, the Seahawks will (A) be pretty darn happy and (B) probably figure out a way to work those numbers down some with a new contract/extension.
For now, what matters is Smith got a pretty big immediate payday as a reward for his breakout 2022 season and perseverance of the previous decade, and the Seahawks know clearly what they have heading into free agency.
GM John Schneider said in a news conference Thursday that getting the deal done by the start of free agency next week was critical. He thanked Smith and his agents for their creativity to do so and give the Seahawks some flexibility to still make some major moves the rest of the offseason.
They appear to have gotten even more flexibility than most expected.