A football season is defined by a thousand different factors — weather forecasts and situational play calls and healthy knee ligaments and controversial penalties and catches and drops and locker room speeches, flea flickers and timeouts and goal-line stands. It’s the football equivalent of a Jackson Pollock painting, with no two paintings (or seasons) exactly alike.
Still, some factors are more impactful than others.
Some inevitably matter most.
For the Washington Huskies to win big in Kalen DeBoer’s debut campaign, these five factors must swing their way.
Quarterback play
Michael Penix Jr. is Washington’s starting quarterback.
But will he continue to be? And how much will it matter?
Penix — a 6-foot-3, 213-pound junior and Indiana transfer — bested sophomore Dylan Morris and redshirt freshman Sam Huard in a three-pronged quarterback competition this summer, leveraging his significant experience into a starting gig. DeBoer said last month that Penix “has just been solid, consistent, day in and day out. He does a great job picking up and seeing protections and getting us in the right plays. He knows what the offense is supposed to look like, too. So that helps as well. He makes the plays when he needs to.”
With a talented supporting cast that includes wide receivers Jalen McMillan, Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk, plus tight ends Devin Culp and Jack Westover, Penix won’t have to single-handedly carry the Husky offense. But he must make the plays he needs to make, while stiff-arming ship-sinking mistakes.
Morris — who, from a scheme standpoint, was asked to win races with four flat tires last fall — struggled to do that, throwing a conference-worst 12 interceptions in 2021. So whether it’s Penix (who, due to injuries, has never played more than six games in a season), Morris or Huard, the quarterback play must be improved.
The lines of scrimmage
Ready for a coaching cliché?
Football games are won and lost at the line of scrimmage.
It’s tired. It’s also true.
In UW’s 4-8 belly flop last season, the Huskies ranked 10th in the Pac-12 in opponent yards per carry (4.76), 11th in rushing offense (98.42 yards per game), 11th in rushing defense (194 yards allowed per game) and dead last in yards per carry (3.19). The only team consistently worse at the line of scrimmage was Stanford, which — shocker — finished 3-9.
Offensive line coach Scott Huff returns, as does a pair of sixth-year senior starters in left tackle Jaxson Kirkland and right guard Henry Bainivalu. On the other side, junior defensive line starter Sam “Taki” Taimani transferred to rival Oregon, leaving Tuli Letuligasenoa, converted offensive lineman Ulumoo Ale, Kuao Peihopa, Faatui Tuitele, Voi Tunuufi, Jacob Bandes and Co. to implode opposing lines.
“I think we’re greatly improved,” DeBoer said last month, when asked about UW’s physicality on both sides of the line. “I think we’re rock solid at understanding our fits defensively. I think playing with confidence is a big part of playing physical.
“I think our offensive line definitely is in sync. They’re more in sync with what we’re trying to do. When they’re all working together, now they’re opening up holes. A lot of it is really understanding what the goal and objective is of each play, what the calls and adjustments are of each concept and executing it.”
Turnover margin
From 2009 to 2020, UW finished with a positive turnover margin every single season — a remarkable run of pigskin-stripping, pick-snaring consistency. That stat flipped in 2021, when UW’s turnover margin (-0.58) ranked 10th in the Pac-12 and 111th in the nation.
That devolution is dependent on a flurry of factors — Morris’ 12 interceptions, seven lost fumbles, a mediocre pass rush, a conservative defensive philosophy, etc.
Under co-defensive coordinators Chuck Morrell and William Inge, Washington seems determined to attack and bring more persistent pressure than previous regimes. That, along with improved offensive line and quarterback play, should yield a less catastrophic turnover margin. But a more aggressive defensive philosophy could also leave UW more vulnerable to surrendering explosive passing plays. In this case, gambles might be required to cause chaos.
Explosive plays
After a day this August in which Washington’s quarterbacks and wide receivers regularly connected on explosive passing plays, offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb was asked how encouraging that was to see.
“If they weren’t able to do that, that would be really rough on this offense, because we’re predicated on getting that ball down the field a little bit,” Grubb said. “So I’m really happy with that. I know they did work in the summer. I think [the quarterbacks] did a good job of trying to focus on some of those deep balls and the timing they would need to have with some of the receivers.”
There are no shortage of receivers to go around. McMillan, Odunze, Polk, Giles Jackson, Taj Davis and Lonyatta Alexander Jr. could all realistically contribute this fall, as well as tight ends Culp and Westover. Running backs Wayne Taulapapa, Will Nixon, Cameron Davis and Sam Adams II are capable pass-catchers as well.
Theoretically, this offense should consistently — and successfully — push the ball down field, though some of that remains dependent on competent quarterback play. Fresno State logged 31 scrimmage plays of 30 yards or more last season, more than double UW’s 15.
Fourth quarter finishes
UW outscored its opponents 128-110 in the first half last season, an oddity for a 4-8 team.
The Huskies were outscored 47-37 in the third quarter … and 115-86 in the fourth. They also finished 3-5 in one-score games.
That trend is likely a reflection both of a coaching staff that struggled to make in-game adjustments and a team that physically wore down on both sides of the ball in the second half. Strength and conditioning coach Ron McKeefery addressed the second part of that puzzle this offseason, as the Huskies dropped an average of 2.5% body fat, while gaining an average of 7 pounds of muscle. DeBoer said at Pac-12 media day: “I knew we needed to get stronger [this offseason]. I think we all knew that.”
Near the end of each August practice, UW’s coaches halted drills and the players met in the middle of the field, raising four fingers above their heads. It’s obvious DeBoer and Co. have put an emphasis on finishing strong this fall.
But the proof must be in their play.