The mere mention of the word elicits a wince from Jerry Dipoto and a momentary reluctance to speak, which rarely happens from the always-conversational Mariners president of baseball operations.
While it may be true, the cruel nature of baseball and the fickle unpredictability of pitching performance and health won’t allow Dipoto to think or even say the word “surplus” when it comes to the amount of starting pitching on his 40-man roster and in the organization.
“I’m not a very superstitious person, but any time I hear that word, surplus, I shiver just a little bit. I don’t even like saying it. So I don’t know if I would go so far as saying we have a surplus. I’ve said those words and it terrifies me because just as quickly as you say we have a surplus you’ll realize you don’t, because that’s just the nature of pitching.
Still, there are plenty of teams that would be happy to say it if it meant they had the Mariners’ collection of starting pitchers, which is as good as any team in Major League Baseball.
The Mariners have six proven MLB starters on their projected 40-man roster, all of whom contributed heavily to their success in the 2022 run to the postseason. There are three potential-laden starting-pitching prospects ready to make their MLB debut in the farm system.
“The Mariners have shown they are good at finding and developing pitching at all levels,” said an opposing American League scout. “It’s one of the biggest strengths of the organization.”
The projected starting rotation for the highly anticipated 2023 season will be the same five starters that ended the 2022 season: Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Marco Gonzales.
After he was acquired from the Reds just before the 2022 MLB trade deadline in exchange for four prospects, Castillo took over as the No. 1 starter with a series of dominant performances in the final months of the season. He signed a five-year, $108 million contract extension and delivered two brilliant starts in the postseason.
There was no wincing when Dipoto was asked about having Castillo in the rotation for an entire season and what he might do with 30-plus starts for the Mariners.
“Every day he starts, you feel like you’re going to win that game,” Dipoto said. “And that’s a pretty important feeling to impart on a team that you’re trying to help grow. We thought he was the best pitcher available on the market and did pay a premium to get him. I’d do it again. Especially if I knew he was going to sign. That does make it easier.”
In terms of stuff and ability to shut down an opponent, Castillo brings something to the Mariners that hasn’t been evident since Felix Hernandez.
While most fans will remember Ray serving up a missile of a homer to Yordan Alvarez at Minute Maid Park in the American League Division Series, his season was more productive than one outing.
Ray made 32 starts, posting a 12-12 record with a 3.71 ERA with 212 strikeouts and 62 walks in 189 innings with a 1.8 FanGraphs WAR. Obviously, more was expected from the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner, who was signed to a five-year, $115 million contract. Ray wasn’t quite the front-of-the-rotation performer the Mariners anticipated, but he never missed a start.
The Mariners toyed with the possibility of trading Gonzales in the days after acquiring Castillo but couldn’t find a workable deal. He posted a 10-15 record with a 4.13 ERA in 32 starts. After posting a 3.6 WAR in 2019, Gonzales had a 0.5 WAR in 2021 and 0.1 WAR in 2022.
While Castillo headlines the rotation, it’s the duo of Gilbert and Kirby that makes the rotation special. The two homegrown pitchers — both first-round picks — have the potential to be All-Star performers.
In his second full season, Gilbert posted a 13-6 record with a 3.20 ERA in 32 starts with 174 strikeouts and 49 walks in 185 2/3 innings. Kirby, who started the season with Class AA Arkansas, posted an 8-5 record with a 3.39 ERA in 25 starts with 133 strikeouts and only 22 walks in 130 innings pitched.
Gilbert and Kirby set career highs in innings pitched, going well past their previous highs as professionals. That workload is a concern going into next season in terms of potential injuries.
The Mariners didn’t have a starting pitcher miss an outing because of injury last season and never had a starting pitcher spend any time on the injured list, which is not typical. It’s a reason why Dipoto is hesitant to remove from a surplus that includes Chris Flexen and Matt Brash, who were in the 2022 opening-day starting rotation. They are slotted for bullpen roles though both could return to starting if needed.
While the Mariners’ preference would be to keep the hard-throwing Brash in the bullpen, he could be an emergency option if there are multiple injuries or Flexen is traded.
The Mariners do have right-handers Emerson Hancock, Bryce Miller and Taylor Dollard — their three most big-league ready starting-pitching prospects in their minor league system and capable of making their MLB debuts this season. It does make Flexen, who is under contract for the 2023 season at $8 million, expendable.
“It gives us a great advantage in a market that is always pitching starved,” Dipoto said. “If we can potentially answer one of our other needs by leveraging some of that pitching, that’s something we have to consider.”
Projected rotations
Mariners
- Luis Castillo, RHP
- Robbie Ray, LHP
- Logan Gilbert, RHP
- George Kirby, RHP
- Marco Gonzales, LHP
Class AAA Tacoma
- Taylor Dollard, RHP
- Tommy Milone, LHP
- Justus Sheffield, LHP
- Darren McCaughan, RHP
- TBD
Class AA Arkansas
- Emerson Hancock, RHP
- Bryce Miller, RHP
- Prelander Berroa, RHP
- Stephen Kolek, RHP
- Juan Mercedes, RHP
Class A Everett
- Bryan Woo, RHP
- Logan Rinehart, RHP
- Jimmy Joyce, RHP
- Michael Morales, RHP
- Sam Carlson, RHP
Class A Modesto
- Michael Limoncelli, RHP
- Jimmy Kingsbury, RHP
- Jordan Jackson, RHP
- Jean Munoz, RHP
- Yeury Tatiz, RHP