Here are three things to know entering the Kraken’s game at San Jose on Thursday night:
Law of the jungle
Yeah, the NHL has some parity, but enough is enough. The Kraken are playoff destined, and the San Jose Sharks are headed for a lottery draw to see who gets Connor Bedard at No. 1 overall in this summer’s draft. The Sharks have dropped four games in a row and 13 of their past 15.
In the jungle, the big, strong animals typically feast on the small, weaker ones. It’s time for the Kraken to start acting the part. They recalled hard-nosed center John Hayden from the AHL on Wednesday, with coach Dave Hakstol saying he gives the Kraken “another element” for upcoming games.
Seeing the Kraken’s struggles at getting to the net front the past two games against a talented Dallas team that plays a big, heavy game, Hakstol’s group could stand to play a little bigger, starting with Hayden. And they could start by playing bigger against a Sharks team they should overpower, with or without Hayden.
All season long, starting with an opening road loss to Anaheim and most recently last month in a 4-0 loss at San Jose, the Kraken have let the small fry push them around. This season they’ve lost to a who’s who of NHL bottom-feeders, including Montreal, Chicago, St. Louis and twice to Vancouver.
That’s a lot of points given away against teams that entered Wednesday ranked in the bottom nine among the NHL’s 32 squads. The Sharks, with the second fewest points in the league, are so bad they’re the first team eliminated from playoff contention.
Speaking of a Rumble in the Jungle, the Kraken also can’t get rope-a-doped by these guys. They’ve had leads in four of those seven losses to bad teams and nearly blew two others against Anaheim and San Jose.
So, unlike last month’s loss to San Jose in which the Kraken played like conscientious objectors to physical play, they must go at the Sharks from the opening whistle and impose their will in unrelenting fashion by forechecking as if it’s a playoff opener. If ever they needed a 60-minute game, it’s now. Do that, the Law of the Jungle takes over and good team beats bad team. Blow these two points, the Kraken will be begging for trouble.
Beg for trouble, it’ll find you
We’ve written for a while that the Kraken are playoff shoo-ins, but that’s always come with a caveat: They can’t collapse. Now, three consecutive home losses doesn’t constitute a collapse. Know what would? Losing to San Jose, then to trade-deadline-fortified Edmonton and Dallas squads to drop six in a row entering consecutive games at Nashville.
Then you’re flirting with collapse. For now the Kraken remain six points ahead of a Predators squad that isn’t very good, sold off pieces at the trade deadline and has hung around the battle for a final Western Conference playoff spot by applying the aforementioned Law of the Jungle against teams even worse than they are.
Nashville is 8-2-1 over its past 11, with six victories coming against Vancouver, San Jose, Anaheim, Arizona, Chicago and Detroit. The only good teams the Predators have defeated were Los Angeles and a so-so Florida squad. They also lost to Arizona and Chicago that span and play the Blackhawks again Thursday night.
So we’re seeing what happens when a mad-scientist schedule allows a non-playoff team to play almost nothing but cellar dwellers for a month.
Still, the Predators have two games in hand on the Kraken and can theoretically move within two points of them by — and this is a big ask — winning those games. They haven’t done so, and their schedule gets much tougher after Thursday. So the Kraken don’t want to breathe any more life into the Predators by continuing to lose and giving them the impression of hope entering next week’s visit to Nashville.
Not to mention, the Kraken visit red-hot Minnesota right after. So yes, a theoretical nine-game losing streak — two of them to the Predators — would constitute enough of a collapse to knock the Kraken from the playoffs. Don’t forget, a better Calgary team also lurks, and the Flames picked up their NHL-leading 14th “loser point” of the season in yet another overtime loss Tuesday to hang within seven of the Kraken.
But the Flames have no games in hand and only 14 left. As long as the Kraken win a couple every now and then, those other pursuers can’t secure enough remaining points to be a threat. It all starts with the Kraken defeating San Jose and eliminating a problem before it takes hold.
Stop the darned puck
Not to beat up on the goaltenders again, but the Kraken need a stop or two beyond average against the Sharks. They can’t blow a much-needed two points because Philipp Grubauer or Martin Jones — and Grubauer should be starting — isn’t up to playoff standards.
The Kraken have allowed 14 goals over three consecutive losses, two started by Grubauer. They yielded four in last month’s loss to the Sharks.
Over their past six losses, the Kraken gave up five or more goals in four and at least four in all six. That’s too many for a playoff-bound team. These defensive lapses and inability of the goalies to pick up teammates need to stop.
The past three losses saw Grubauer post save percentages of .839 and .840 in an era when good teams want it above .900. Jones was at .844 in Monday’s loss to Dallas and has been above .900 just once his past eight outings.
The advanced Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) metric from Evolving Hockey had Grubauer allowing 1.23 goals more than “expected” based on shot quality against Dallas on Saturday. It was the first negative score for Grubauer since a 6-5 home loss to Boston last month.
In last Thursday’s loss to Ottawa, according to the GSAx metric, Grubauer was dead-even, stopping only those shots he was expected to. In four previous starts, he’d performed slightly above average.
Jones let in three more goals that “expected” in Monday’s loss and has been in negative territory his past eight outings.
So against the Sharks, Grubauer must play like he did before this losing streak.