First come the rankings.
Then, the unrest.
If I’ve learned one thing from two seasons serving as an Associated Press Top 25 voter, it’s that you can’t please everyone. Every decision — every ranking — coincides with a perceived slight, with an emailer or Twitter follower or caller who is convinced you hate their team. These responses, like sunrises, cannot be stopped.
So, as the sun sets on another season, let’s dive into my final rankings — and how/why they differ from the actual poll. Let’s hear each other out. Let’s heal.
OK, who am I kidding?
Let’s argue about the Huskies and TCU.
The explanations
1 Georgia (15-0)
2. Michigan (13-1)
3. Ohio State (11-2)
4. TCU (13-2)
Analysis: I was surprised to learn late Monday that I was one of just three voters — alongside ESPN’s Rece Davis and the Albuquerque Journal’s Rick Wright — that dropped TCU out of the top three. And this was an undeniably difficult decision, considering head-to-head results favor the official poll. No. 2 TCU beat No. 3 Michigan, which beat No. 4 Ohio State.
See? Easy. Clean.
I wish it was.
Honestly, there are endless available arguments — but no true No. 2.
Head-to-head results, after all, aren’t everything — especially when TCU (which didn’t win its conference) loses 65-7 in the national championship game. Plus, the Horned Frogs were not a decisive victor in the CFP semifinal, with the difference being a pair of pick-sixes (though Michigan outgained TCU 528 to 488 and earned six more first downs in a 51-45 defeat). And in the other semi, Ohio State fell a missed field goal (and a single point, 57 points fewer than TCU) shy of besting those same Georgia Bulldogs.
ESPN’s Football Power Index — a measure of team strength based on 20,000 simulations — ranks TCU 13th in the nation. The Horned Frogs’ net efficiency ranking (a schedule-adjusted measure of per-play efficiency) is No. 7 overall — behind No. 1 Georgia, No. 3 Ohio State and No. 4 Michigan.
Head-to-head results aren’t everything. Analytics aren’t everything. The eye test isn’t everything.
But let’s concede to common sense. Michigan thumped Ohio State en route to a Big Ten title and finished as the only one-loss team in the nation. Ohio State, playing its best game on the biggest stage, nearly unseated the undisputed No. 1 team a week ago. TCU went 6-1 in one-score games, with a miniscule margin for error, before inevitably succumbing to a superior side.
Of course, because TCU completed an undefeated regular season, then topped Michigan in the CFP semi, Sonny Dykes’ crew absolutely deserved to play for a national championship. But that doesn’t make TCU the second-best team in the nation. Does anyone actually believe Michigan or Ohio State would have fared worse?
7. Penn State (11-2)
8. Washington (11-2)
Analysis: The Huskies’ argument against Penn State hinges on quality wins.
Namely, UW owns three wins over ranked opponents (No. 15 Oregon, No. 17 Oregon State, No. 25 Texas), while Penn State has just one (No. 10 Utah).
Of course, the Nittany Lions have far superior losses — with their only defeats coming against CFP participants Michigan and Ohio State. In this area, UW’s road clunker at Arizona State continues to sting.
The analytics also favor Penn State in most comprehensive categories. Specifically, the Nittany Lions have a superior SP+ (a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of team efficiency, where Penn State finished No. 7 and UW ranked No. 15), Football Power Index (No. 7 PSU, No. 20 UW), net efficiency (No. 6 PSU, No. 18 UW), strength of schedule (No. 20 PSU, No. 59 UW), strength of record rank (No. 7 PSU, No. 9 UW), game control rank (No. 5 PSU, No. 14 UW) and in-game win probability rank (No. 5 PSU, No. 9 UW).
And, if you consider which team played better at the end of the season, the resumes are still hard to separate. UW closed its campaign with a seven-game winning streak that included ranked wins over Oregon State and Oregon, three road wins (four if you count the Alamo Bowl affair against Texas) and an average margin of victory of 13.6 points.
Penn State, however, also sprinted to the finish — producing a five-game winning streak that featured a Rose Bowl win over Pac-12 champion Utah, two road wins and an average margin of victory of 27.8 points.
Statistically, Washington has both greater strengths and weaknesses. The Huskies led the nation in passing (369.8 yards per game), first downs (27.2), third down conversions (56.8%) and tackles for loss allowed (31), while finishing second in total offense (516.2 yards per game) and sacks allowed (7).
And while Penn State was above average offensively — ranking 20th in scoring offense (35.8 points per game, roughly four points fewer than UW) — Manny Diaz’s defense landed in the Top 25 in nearly every available category. The Nittany Lions ranked first in passes defended (99), second in pass efficiency defense (103.24), fourth in turnover margin (0.92), fifth in opponent yards per play (4.61), fifth in tackles for loss per game (8.0), fifth in opponent yards per pass attempt (5.8), seventh in sacks per game (3.23) and ninth in scoring defense (18.2 points allowed per game). The list goes on.
All things considered: the Huskies are more prolific offensively … but the Nittany Lions have fewer holes.
Who would win in a head-to-head matchup? We would have found out in the Rose Bowl, had USC not lost to Utah in the Pac-12 championship game.
I gev the slim rankings nod to Penn State, based off the aforementioned analytical argument.
But don’t blame me. Blame the Trojans.
15. Utah (10-4)
16. USC (11-3)
17. Notre Dame (9-4)
18. Clemson (11-3)
Analysis: In deciding where to slot Clemson — the champion of an overrated ACC — following the Tigers’ 31-14 Orange Bowl flop against Tennessee, these successive dominos fell:
Utah twice beat USC, which thoroughly thumped Notre Dame, which thoroughly thumped Clemson.
So there you go.
24. Fresno State (10-4)
25. UCLA (9-4)
Analysis: In 2021, future UW coach Kalen DeBoer emerged on the national stage with a 40-37 Fresno State upset of No. 13 UCLA.
And in these rankings, at least, the Bulldogs just topped the Bruins for a second consecutive season.