It has to be the Rams the Seahawks have to beat to get into the playoffs, doesn’t it?
It was the Rams the Seahawks had to beat in 2010 in the regular-season finale to take the NFC West at 7-9 and kick off the Pete Carroll era in fitting fashion, setting up all that happened later.
And it was the Rams the Seahawks had to beat in the regular-season finale in 2013 and 2014 to secure home-field advantage in the playoffs, which proved critical in getting to the Super Bowl each year.
And it was the Rams the Seahawks had to beat the last time they clinched a division title in 2020.
The Seahawks find themselves again ending the season with the Rams in as pivotal a game as can be — a win-or-else game to get to the playoffs.
Actually, it’s more like win and wait, as the Seahawks have to beat the Rams and needs Detroit to win at Green Bay in the Sunday night game to get the seventh seed in the playoffs.
But first things first.
Let’s take a closer look at the matchup with the Rams with our weekly keys to the game and prediction.
Matchup to watch
WR DK Metcalf vs. Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey
This matchup is always must-see TV even if Metcalf and Ramsey don’t necessarily go against each other on every play. In the earlier meeting this year on Dec. 4, when Metcalf had his second 100-yard game of the season with eight receptions for 127 yards, just one of his catches came when matched up directly on Ramsey. The eight-yard TD gave the Seahawks the winning points with 36 seconds left. According to Pro Football Focus, Metcalf caught passes matched up against five other Rams defenders that day. But given the Rams being in nothing-to-lose mode, it’s tempting to wonder if they find a way to get Ramsey in coverage more on Metcalf this time. As for Metcalf, he’s coming off a game in which he had just one catch for three yards against the Jets, each the second-lowest totals of his career, which left Carroll hinting that he expects a big rebound this week.
Player to watch
Quarterback Geno Smith
This is as big of a game as Smith has played in his career, with a chance to guide the Seahawks to a winning season and a playoff berth, which few would have predicted when they traded Russell Wilson in March. Smith can also set team records for completions, yards and completion percentage Sunday. And 17-game season or not, those will still be impressive stats to throw around when it comes time to talk contract in the offseason. But most important for his future may be showing he can win a game like this, and guide a team to a winning record. A loss would be especially disappointing after the 6-3 start, and would be the sixth in the last eight games, and might help color the decisions the team makes regarding its QB situation in the offseason.
Coaching decision to watch
Early offensive aggressiveness
While the Seahawks ended up rushing a season-high 38 times against the Jets last week, the game didn’t start that way. They had an eight-to-eight pass-to-run ratio in the first quarter as Smith went 6 of 8 for 105 yards in leading the Seahawks to a 10-3 lead that became 17-3 45 seconds into the second quarter, at which point the pass-run ratio was nine-to-nine. Five of their six biggest gains came in the first quarter. A similar strategy of trying to strike quickly makes sense this week as this is the kind of game where the Seahawks don’t want to let an underdog hang around with so much on the line.
The X-factor
Playoff pressure
All the pressure in this one is on the Seahawks. How they handle this will be interesting to watch. The Seahawks have seemed to be at their best this year in underdog roles, such as the opener against Denver, and defying expectations to get to 6-3. The Seahawks are just 2-3 as a point-spread favorite this year and just 1-3 at home. The Seahawks are six-point favorites Sunday. In the good-omen department, the only time they have been a bigger favorite was against the Rams in LA at 6.5. They didn’t cover in that game but they did win, and that’s all the Seahawks care about this week.
Players who could surprise
LBs Cody Barton and Tanner Muse
While Jordyn Brooks has put up huge tackle numbers the past two years, there is a debate about just how valuable he is to the team. He is ranked 70th out of 84 linebackers this week by Pro Football Focus. An answer to that question could come Sunday as he will miss his first game since becoming a full-time starter before the 2021 season after suffering an ACL injury against the Jets. Cody Barton will take his spot at MLB, as he did for the final 35 minutes last week, with Tanner Muse expected to get his first NFL start at the weakside spot where Barton was playing. The pair played well against the Jets, but the Seahawks had a 17-6 lead when Brooks departed and the Jets have struggled on offense of late. Expect the Rams to try to test Barton and Muse with their usual assortment of misdirection plays while maybe throwing in some other gadgets to keep the middle of the defense off-balance.
Key stat
8-0
That’s the Seahawks’ record this year when leading after three quarters. Conversely, the Seahawks are 0-7 when trailing after three quarters and 0-1 when tied after three quarters (they are 0-6 this year when trailing at halftime). The days of winning the game in the fourth quarter — long one of Carrol’s favorite sayings — have evaporated, at least for this season. That stat shows that the Seahawks know how to put a game away in the fourth quarter. And they have had one game where it led after three, fell behind, and came back — against the Rams in LA — and another where it lost a fourth-quarter lead to fall into a tie and won (against the Giants). But in general this year, the Seahawks have been either a good front-running team, or one that can’t come all the way back in the fourth quarter when needed. All the more reason to try to build a big, early lead Sunday.
Prediction
Seahawks 21, Rams 13. Bobby Wagner alone will probably make sure this won’t be an easy one for the Seahawks. But Seattle’s defense finally seems to be finding some consistency, and a performance similar to the last three weeks by the Seahawks’ stop unit should be enough to get the win in this one — and then wait and see if it proves enough to get to the playoffs.