A week ago, the Seahawks were full of hope that today they’d be 9-5 this season, tied for the lead in the NFC West, if not ahead, with control of their destiny for both a playoff spot and the division title.
Now, after two losses in five days, they are 7-7, a game and a half back of a playoff spot and have no shot at the division title, which is firmly in the hands of the rival 49ers after Thursday night’s 21-13 San Francisco victory at Lumen Field.
To address four key questions from Thursday and what happens now, here are Seahawks beat reporters Bob Condotta and Adam Jude with our weekly Four Downs analysis.
1. Is there anything positive to take away from the Seahawks’ third consecutive home loss?
Jude: Until the 49ers’ final drive, the Seahawks’ run defense showed signs of improvement, and that was without two of their best interior linemen (Al Woods and Bryan Mone) for almost all of the game (Mone played five snaps before leaving because of an ACL injury). Of course, the run defense fell apart at the precise moment when the Seahawks needed it to rise to the occasion. The 49ers were able to run out of the clock in the closing minutes and finished with 170 yards rushing, another staggering sum. Over the past five games, the Seahawks have allowed 1,008 yards rushing, and that area remains a most serious concern entering the final three weeks of the season. Overall, the best thing the Seahawks have going right now is the Geno Smith-to-DK Metcalf connection. Metcalf is as feisty and motivated as he’s ever been, and the Seahawks will need even more of him after Tyler Lockett’s injury.
Related
49ers 21, Seahawks 13
More
Condotta: Aside from the run defense — which did look a lot better, with the caveat that the 49ers were without Deebo Samuel — you can be heartened that the Seahawks didn’t fold once it was 21-3 one minute into the second half. True, the callback of the pick-six thrown by Geno Smith — because of a penalty that had no impact on the play — helped keep it respectable. But in that moment it felt like the score could have gotten out of hand. Getting it to a one-score game didn’t seem likely at that point. That Seattle did, but then couldn’t get the ball again, added to the frustration of the night. But if the Seahawks keep playing with the fight they did in those final 29 minutes when they outscored the 49ers 10-0, maybe something can still come of this season.
2. How can the Seahawks navigate the loss of Tyler Lockett?
Condotta: As this is written, based on an NFL Network report it sounds as if Lockett, who suffered a broken hand, will miss at least the next two games, against the Chiefs and Jets. Seattle will hope for more from Marquise Goodwin, and maybe the return of Dee Eskridge — now eligible to come off injured reserve. And maybe they can get the tight ends involved more in the passing game. But the best way to make up for Lockett’s absence is to get the running game going — there’s no way Seattle can keep having pass-to-run ratios like the 44-to-14 from Thursday and survive at any time, but especially without Lockett.
Jude: It certainly won’t be easy. It’s difficult to overstate what Lockett means to this offense, and to this team at large. The Seahawks will obviously need Metcalf to continue to be a major presence, and they’ll need more from a veteran like Goodwin, and they would be smart to get their three tight ends more involved in the pass game. More than anything, they need to figure out a way to reignite their running game, to take some pressure off Smith and get their receivers in some one-on-one matchups.
3. How can they get Kenneth Walker III untracked?
Jude: It starts at the line of scrimmage, of course. That the Seahawks’ offensive line struggled Thursday against perhaps the NFL’s best D-line was not a surprise. But maybe Seattle’s O-line will be better for it. Maybe the rookie tackles still have one more big push in them here over the final three weeks. Walker, in his return from an ankle injury, did look fresh, and that’s encouraging. The Seahawks ought to give him 20 touches each game to close out the season, and they need to be patient and stubborn with the run game.
Condotta: It’s indeed been pretty tough sledding of late for Walker, who has 286 yards on 83 carries since Oct. 23 — 3.4 per carry. Walker, though, showed he’s the best back Seattle has right now with a few nifty runs against the 49ers, including a 15-yarder early in the fourth quarter. Still, he was held to 47 yards on 12 carries overall — and 32 on his 11 attempts other than the one 15-yard carry — as the 49ers D-line had its way with Seattle’s offensive front much of the night. The good news is the Seahawks won’t play a front quite that good in the final three games. But the bad news is that both the Jets and Rams rank in the top five in fewest yards allowed per rush. So, nothing figures to come easy for Walker the rest of the way.
4. Is it worth even mentioning the Seahawks as a playoff contender at this point?
Condotta: Well, this is where you can thank the new playoff system instituted in 2020 allowing a third wild-card team. Without that, the loss to the 49ers might have been a death knell for the Seahawks. But thanks to the third wild card, and seventh playoff team in each conference, Seattle still has a 34% chance to make the playoffs, according to fivethirtyeight.com — which is due also to the tough remaining schedules of the Giants and Commanders, currently holding the sixth and seventh spots, both with 7-5-1 records. Dallas, at 11-3, can clinch a wild-card spot Sunday with a win over Jacksonville, leaving the Giants, Commanders, Seahawks and the 6-7 Lions vying for the final two spots. Even a loss to the Chiefs next Saturday and falling to 7-8 drops Seattle to only 26%. But what a fall it’s been since the first week of November, when the Seahawks were 6-3. As they headed to Munich, Seattle’s playoff odds were 84%, via fivethirtyeight.com.
Jude: They are still in it. It’s been such a roller coaster of a season for the Seahawks, and they could certainly surprise us with one or two more unexpected twists and turns. No one will give them a chance to knock off Kansas City on the road on Christmas Eve, but they close out the regular season with two games at home, and if they beat the Jets and Rams they would get to 9-8. That might be enough for them to sneak in as the No. 7 seed in the NFC.