Reasons to hope, and mope, for Kraken fans in Year 2

As with any professional sports season, the margin between wins and losses is often razor thin and was such with the debut Kraken.

Here are three reasons for what could go right and three reasons the season could come undone again.

Reasons to hope

Goaltending has nowhere to go but up

Philipp Grubauer had not had a save percentage below .916 before last season, when he put up .889. Anything sub-.900 usually isn’t the stuff of starting netminders, let alone Vezina Trophy finalists. 

Grubauer’s numbers almost have to improve merely by default. Throw in a defensive core that should be a tad quicker and more adapted to his style, and the Kraken can’t possibly let in as many soft goals as they did in last season’s first half. And yeah, Chris Driedger is hurt, but he missed a lot of games last season and his numbers weren’t much better than Grubauer’s. so you’d expect no drop-off going to backup Martin Jones. 

This team should score more

The Kraken had three 20-plus goal scorers last season in Jared McCann, Jordan Eberle and Yanni Gourde. This season — with Oliver Bjorkstrand and Andre Burakovsky added — they have five guys who scored that many in 2021-22. Matty Beniers playing a full season could provide a sixth, not to mention Brandon Tanev and Jaden Schwartz were among offensive team leaders before season-ending injuries and are back. 

Spreading things around should make it tougher for opponents to key on one player. McCann scored 18 goals his first 39 games last season but just nine over his final 35 while drawing more attention. Eberle scored 12 times his first 23 games and then nine more his final 56 contests. 

The margin of defeat was already thin

It’s been well chronicled the Kraken lost 16 one-goal games and 14 more in which they trailed by a goal late before yielding an empty-netter with the goalie pulled for an extra attacker. That’s 30 games in which one additional Kraken goal scored or prevented could have secured another standings point or two.

Advanced statistics showed their “expected goals” total in five-on-five play was 161 when they actually scored only 152 — meaning they got a bit unlucky at times. The disparity was even more glaring on goals allowed, with actual ones given up tallying 188 in five-on-five action compared with the 161 they were “expected” to yield.

Even through sheer positive regression, before all the summer additions, the Kraken should swing some results toward extra points.

Reasons to mope

They run out of gas

The up-tempo style the Kraken are trying to play isn’t for everybody, and they looked gassed at times last season. Right before Barry Trotz was let go as coach of the New York Islanders in May, he conceded his team, which played a similar style in reaching Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals during a pandemic-shortened 2020-21 season, had trouble replicating that over a regular 82-game campaign.

So if a talented playoff team such as the Islanders has trouble maintaining a relentless pace, why would the Kraken be different? The Kraken didn’t always show up for the beginning of some games. They looked flat-footed at times and were prone to getting burned on transitions. Sometimes they appeared to be catching midweek breathers to heal their battered bodies. It’s imperative that coach Dave Hakstol has the right player personnel in the right roles this season.

Soft goals early

Nothing deflates a team more than working its tail off to score, only to have goals given right back to the opponent without much effort. Of all the softer goals allowed by Grubauer and — to a lesser extent — his backups last season, an abundance came the opening two months. That poor start doomed the Kraken before they even got out of the gate.

You can blame other factors, and certainly the goalies and defenders weren’t always on the same page as part of a new expansion team. But that excuse no longer exists. The stoppable pucks must be stopped from the start this season to generate momentum that can give the Kraken confidence and keep them in the hunt beyond the Christmas break.

Injury to a top-four defender

The Kraken defense is quite solid, but lacking in elite talent. If somebody on the top two pairings goes down — either Jamie Oleksiak, Adam Larsson, Vince Dunn or Justin Schultz — things start to get real thin. Michal Kempny was already hurt midway through preseason, so the depth after that is mainly Cale Fleury and Ryker Evans with minimal NHL experience between them.

A big part of the Kraken’s expected overall improvement is a defense that should move pucks more quickly: Creating more opportunities in the offensive zone and limiting chances in the Kraken’s end. But that might fizzle if one of the top puck movers Dunn or Schultz gets hurt and Kempny isn’t ready to replace him. Likewise, Larsson and Oleksiak are the team’s best defensive-minded blue-liners and a backstop against turnovers and counterattacks in a fast-paced Kraken transition game. Losing one of them for any length of time could alter the team’s look.