The ending of the 2022 Seahawks season means we now begin an offseason that could be as interesting as anything that happened on the field over the last five months.
What do the Seahawks need to do to take the next step to go from not just making the playoffs but to making some noise in them? And how much will it take to keep Geno Smith?
Those topics and more are debated by Seahawks beat writers Bob Condotta and Adam Jude in a season wrap-up edition of Four Downs.
1. Do you feel the same optimism Pete Carroll does about the future?
Jude: Does anyone anywhere ever feel as much optimism as Pete Carroll about anything? (Doubtful.) Certainly, Seahawks fans ought to feel much better about where the organization stands compared with a year ago, when there was so much drama and so much uncertainty about the direction of the team. The transformation since has been remarkable. And yet, as Carroll acknowledged candidly Monday, the Seahawks have a long way to go to catch up to the 49ers in the NFC West.
The good news, of course, is the Seahawks have money to spend this offseason (roughly $35 million, per OvertheCap) and a boatload of draft picks (Nos. 5 and 20 in the first round and four in the first two rounds overall) thanks, in part, to the Russell Wilson trade. So, yes, they’ve positioned themselves nicely to make the necessary moves to enhance the overall talent level of the roster. They don’t need another overhaul, but this is an enormously important offseason. The Seahawks have to get it right.
Condotta: As Adam noted, the real news would be if Carroll were not supremely optimistic about the future. But, while I think much of the optimism is justified, I’m not ready to go as far as he is in making any comparisons between this season and 2012. That team destroyed the eventual NFC champion 49ers in a December game, 42-13, simply looking faster, more physical and better.
While there are things to like about what this year’s team did and some of the players developed at key positions, there’s a way to go to become anything like that 2012 team in terms of having dynamic playmakers at just about every position group. This season was a good first step. But the three losses to the 49ers this year — by a combined 46 points and with SF outgaining Seattle by an average of 144 in each contest — shows there’s a lot of work that remains.
2. Should the Seahawks make re-signing Geno Smith their top priority entering the offseason?
Jude: Absolutely. There’s been much debate about Smith’s worth. What might a new contract look like for him? How much should the Seahawks pay him? I’d present Kirk Cousins a good comp. Cousins played this season in Minnesota on a one-year, $35 million deal. You could make a good case that Smith is just as valuable to the Seahawks as Cousins is to the Vikings, if not more. And if the Seahawks could re-sign Smith in the $30-35 million range per season, that feels like a win-win for everyone.
Condotta: Here’s what I’d say the top priority is — re-signing Smith and being able to do so in a way that allows the team to make significant upgrades. And that, of course, is always the tricky part. While the Seahawks have roughly $35 million in cap space, they will almost certainly make some moves to create more by either cutting or redoing contracts for a few veterans. But they’ll also have to commit about $10 million or so to sign draft picks, more than most years since they have two of the top 20 picks and, at the moment, nine overall. The real task here may be getting this done as quickly as possible, not only to simply get it done so both sides can move on, but also so the Seahawks have a clear idea of how to proceed when the free agent signing period begins March 15.
But to Adam’s guess on the amount, a likely floor from Smith’s view will be the $32.4 million or so it is estimated the franchise tag amount will be for QBs in 2023. A multiyear deal that gets Smith at least that much in 2023, but spreads out the cap hit over a few years seems the more likely and palatable option for both sides.
3. What’s the one position the Seahawks must upgrade this offseason?
Condotta: The defensive line, both in the interior and edge rushers. Carroll spoke candidly Monday about the distance he sees in what Seattle has up front and the 49ers, specifically mentioning the impact of players such as Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead on the San Francisco defense and that the Seahawks need to continue to upgrade there. “We are going to have to become more dynamic up front,” Carroll said. “We have to.” Seattle spent last year’s draft largely addressing the offensive line, running back and secondary, which had all appeared as clear needs. Carroll’s comments Monday signaled strongly to expect the Seahawks to address upgrading the defensive front this offseason, likely in the draft and free agency.
Jude: Agreed, they have to start with the defensive front. As Carroll noted, the Seahawks prioritized improving the pass defense last offseason (re-signing Quandre Diggs, drafting Tariq Woolen and Coby Bryant, among other moves). Now they need to address their most obvious weakness: run defense. We could see some significant turnover on the defensive line, and perhaps a new face or two at linebacker. The Seahawks need to explore every option to get better on the defensive front.
4. What do you expect the Seahawks to do with their two first-round picks?
Condotta: As noted earlier, the defensive front seven feels like the biggest priority of the offseason. BUT, I’m still not ready to completely discount that the Seahawks won’t consider taking a quarterback depending on who might fall to them simply because QBs are so valuable and the Seahawks will be hoping they won’t be drafting this highly again anytime soon. As Carroll said Monday: “The quarterbacks in this draft are extraordinary players. You don’t get opportunities like this.” But, assuming all goes as planned with Smith — and if Drew Lock also returns as a younger QB to back up and continue to develop — then loading up on the defensive front seven makes the most sense with the early picks.
Jude: Trade ‘em. Just kidding. Maybe. In all seriousness, no one will be surprised if John Schneider uses the No. 5 pick to trade down and acquire even more first-round draft capital. That might even be the ideal scenario for Schneider — trading down while staying in the top 10 this year and picking up another first-round pick in 2024. The counter argument to that is that Schneider has never had a top-five pick, and this draft is a rare opportunity to find elite talent, likely at a position (edge rusher, defensive tackle) where elite talent can be especially difficult to find. Schneider has many options. Shoot, if he really wanted to move up to, say, the top three, he has the draft capital to do that. Otherwise, he has a chance to dictate how much of the first round of the draft will play out, and that’s ultimately a great spot to be.