RENTON — As the stats, wins and awards have piled up for Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith — the most recent coming Thursday when he was named the NFC’s Offensive Player of the Month — the question increasingly arises about what his future may hold.
Smith signed a one-year contract with Seattle in April for up to $3.5 million, with just $500,000 guaranteed. As such, he can become an unrestricted free agent in March unless the Seahawks make a move to keep him, be it signing him to a long-term contract or placing a franchise or transition tag on him.
But if any of that is on Smith’s mind, he didn’t let on Thursday when asked if he thinks about the impact this season could have on the rest of his NFL career.
“I don’t really live my life like that,” Smith said. “I am always focused on what I have to do today and tomorrow. Those things will come. Time will tell, time will tell with all of that, but for me, I just have to stay focused on what I am doing in here. That’s working hard, leading this team, and going out there and competing to get wins.”
No matter what happens the rest of the year, Smith has played his way into a significant pay raise with some team, be it Seattle or someone else.
And what happens with Smith will go a long way toward determining if the Seahawks will still take a quarterback in the first round next year — which was the move everyone expected when the year began — or decide they can depend on Smith to be a franchise quarterback for years to come.
What’s clear is that Seattle is getting one of the biggest bargains in the NFL this year in Smith.
OvertheCap.com, a website devoted to NFL financial issues, this week valued Smith’s worth to Seattle so far this year at $41.02 million, or $37.5 million more than what he’s getting paid. (All of those ahead of him are also quarterbacks — Cleveland’s Jacoby Brissett, Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson.)
The caveat is that there remains more than half the season still to play — nine regular-season games — and, Seattle hopes, maybe a playoff game or two.
Even trickier for the Seahawks is that there are almost no precedents in NFL history of someone doing what Smith has — basically being a bench player for seven years and then emerging as a legitimate MVP candidate.
“It’s one of the more unique situations I’ve ever seen,” said Joel Corry, a former NFL agent who now writes about NFL financial issues for CBSSports.com.
And Corry says that could have the Seahawks wanting to play the waiting game before deciding what to do with Smith.
“If I’m Seattle, I want to make sure he gets through the season performing at this level,” Smith said.
But if he does, Corry says Seattle will then be faced with one overriding question.
“Will they view as a sign of things to come or will there be a lot of trepidation because there isn’t a track record of him performing to this level?” Corry said.
That has led many to think that the Seahawks could lean toward using a franchise or transition tag on Smith before he hits free agency. Each tag comes with a guaranteed one-year contract, with the franchise tag projected to pay a quarterback roughly $31.4 million in 2023 and the transition tag just over $28 million.
With either, the Seahawks could match any offer Smith might receive as a free agent. A franchise tag also means Seattle would get two first-round picks as compensation should Smith sign elsewhere. Teams do not get compensation with the transition tag. With either, teams can also continue to negotiate with players through the summer.
“If I’m Seattle, I might go transition tag,” Corry said, saying the unknown for each side is how other teams around the league would value Smith in a year when there aren’t a lot of other marquee QBs who may be available, depending on what happens with Jackson, who can be a UFA, Jimmy Garoppolo, Daniel Jones, and, well, Tom Brady, depending on what he decides.
But one negative of tags is that all of that salary goes on the cap for that season, instead of being spread out over multiple years.
Seattle has roughly $53 million in cap space for 2023, according to OTC, fifth-most in the NFL.
Obviously, a Smith contract could take up a healthy chunk of that and surely wasn’t something in Seattle’s long-term plans a few months ago.
And while Smith understandably is saying now he isn’t looking to the future, he will want to cash in on his surprising season, especially if it continues on this path.
According to OvertheCap.com, Smith has made just over $11 million in his career, with his largest payday coming on his rookie contract with the Jets, who took him in the second round with the 39th overall pick in 2013, in which he made just over $5 million in four years.
Smith since has signed six one-year contracts, the last four with the Seahawks, with none for more than $1.212 million before this year.
In other words, Smith could be in line to more than double his entire career earnings after 10 years in the NFL (Smith’s agent is Chafie Fields of the Wasserman Media Group).
Interestingly, Corry said one of the only quarterbacks whose path is somewhat similar to that of Smith’s is a player who was a teammate of Smith with the Jets — Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Fitzpatrick had earned true journeymen status, having played for five teams in 10 years, and three in three years, when he signed with the Jets in 2015 to compete with Smith, who was entering his third season.
Fitzpatrick took over the starting job when Smith suffered a broken jaw during training camp when punched by teammate IK Enemkpali in what was reported as a dispute over $600 and then led the Jets to a 10-6 record, throwing a team record 31 touchdown passes at the age of 33.
But Fitzpatrick had a much longer track record of being a starter than Smith.
And even despite that — or, maybe, because of that — the Jets were hesitant to consider him a long-term solution and after a long stalemate eventually signed him to a one-year, $12 million deal in July. Fitzpatrick played just one more year with the Jets.
But speaking on a conference call this week to promote Amazon Prime’s Thursday Night NFL football package, Fitzpatrick said the Seahawks, or any other team, shouldn’t consider what Smith has done this season as a fluke.
“I mean, he’s playing like a top-five quarterback right now,” Fitzpatrick said. “We’re looking at his stats and the way that he’s leading that team and it’s not like it’s been one or two — it’s not a flash-in-the-pan. It’s been very consistent all season long. I’m very happy for Geno. I think it’s amazing what he’s doing and it was never the physical with him. It’s been nice to see the way that he’s matured and gotten better and better every year and finally having the opportunity and taking advantage of that opportunity.”