Should fans be disappointed in the Seahawks’ start? Should Seattle have just kept Bobby Wagner?
That and more in this week’s Seahawks Twitter mailbag (with some questions edited for clarity):
@uperDaffyd asked: Why are people surprised by the results this year. I believe most people thought they were a flawed team and so far it’s what they have shown they are. My question is why would anyone be surprised by the results this season?
Well I guess I’d ask first, who is surprised? I think most outside/neutral observers weren’t expecting much of Seattle this year — Sports Illustrated picked the Seahawks to go 3-14, to name one especially pessimistic prognostication.
And I sensed most fans were wary from the start of how this season might go, with Russell Wilson now in Denver and no members left from the team that won the Super Bowl in 2013.
But fans understandably also hope for the best. And the season-opening win over Denver, plus the surprisingly stellar play of Geno Smith — surprising, at least to everyone but Smith and his teammates — might have changed expectations somewhat.
And if there’s a disappointment, that’s it. What seemed to be the biggest question about this team — how the Seahawks would replace Wilson — has somewhat inexplicably turned into maybe its biggest strength.
Smith has played well enough that Seattle could be 4-1, and given the struggles of some of the rest of the NFC West and what feels like a lot of parity in the NFC overall, that feels like a lost opportunity so far.
Also, I think what many fans hoped to see this season is vast improvement from the defense and good play by a lot of younger players, regardless of what happened at QB.
Part of that has come true. Rookies such as tackles Abraham Lucas and Charles Cross and cornerbacks Tariq Woolen and Coby Bryant are showing lots of hope for the future.
But the defense obviously has not progressed — and, so far, has regressed — with Seattle just four points away, and some amazing plays by Smith, from being winless this year. And that feels like a pretty big negative considering what people expected out of this season.
@ScottNe95049366 asked: Is losing Bobby Wagner hurting our defense against the run? I notice that they can’t stop the run.
Seattle is having trouble stopping the run, no doubt, having allowed the most rushing yards in the NFL (851), the second-most touchdowns (nine) and 5.0 yards per carry, ranked 28th. Last year, Seattle was second in the NFL in yards per carry allowed at 3.8.
It’s hard not to conclude Wagner wouldn’t have made a difference — he has the second-best run defense grade of any linebacker in the NFL this year via Pro Football Focus, out of 74 total. Seattle’s two inside linebackers, Jordyn Brooks and Cody Barton, are ranked 32nd and 57th, respectively.
But the overriding reason for releasing Wagner was to save $16.6 million in cap space. Brooks and Barton have a combined cap cost this year of about $4.5 million.
And what’s always the issue is trying to figure out what Seattle wouldn’t have if it had kept Wagner — maybe it wouldn’t have been as easy to re-sign safety Quandre Diggs or receiver DK Metcalf, for instance.
But Seattle surmised that maybe Wagner, 32, was on the downside and that they could suitable play from its ILBs — especially going with a 3-4 defense that uses them a little differently than the 4-3 that Wagner played in — and improve the team enough around that with the extra cap space it had.
Seattle’s biggest issue remains big plays in the running game.
Seattle has allowed three runs of 51 yards or longer, including the 60-yarder by Taysom Hill on Sunday.
On each play, the Seahawks had a defender in position to stop the play for a short gain and were unable to.
So I think that is why Pete Carroll and Co. are staying committed to the scheme change. They see players in position to make plays but too often not making them.
So what to do about that?
That leads us to our next question …
PMartinKatyTX asks: Thoughts on WHY the defense starts the year HISTORICALLY BAD each of the past 5 years, improves, and never takes the improvements to the NEXT season?
I’m not sure that pattern really applied to the 2018 and 2019 seasons, but it certainly has the last two years.
The 2020 turnaround was often credited in large part to the addition of Carlos Dunlap at midseason, though what also helped was a pretty massive softening of the schedule and playing a slate of QBs and offenses not as prolific as those earlier in the season. It also helped that Jamal Adams got healthy at midseason and made 7.5 sacks in the last nine games.
Last year, the Seahawks made some tweaks to both personnel — basically changing after the third game of the year its cornerback duo (going with D.J. Reed and Sidney Jones at right and left corner after starting with Reed on the left side and Tre Flowers on the right) and making some subtle changes to its defensive front.
I think the CB issues and that teams prepared for Adams a lot more helped lead to the slow start in 2021. And Seattle never totally turned it around a year ago, finishing 28th in the NFL in yards allowed, largely just figuring out how to tighten things up enough in the red zone to limit the damage.
All those yards helped lead to the firing of Ken Norton Jr. as defensive coordinator and hiring of Clint Hurtt and remaking of the scheme. That, as well as adjusting to some different personnel — no Wagner, no Adams after the first quarter of the season — is taking some time, and more time than anyone hoped.
As for how to improve things this year, wholesale personnel changes are hard to make during the season — but Seattle on Tuesday did bring back veteran Bruce Irvin, and maybe that will help some.
Asked by several people: What would the draft pick be that the Seahawks would get from Denver right not?
A: If the season ended today, the Seahawks would have the 10th and 11th picks in the draft — their own at 10 and Denver’s at 11.
There’s a long way to go, of course. But having two picks that high, if it works out, would give the Seahawks a lot of ammo to make some moves next offseason.